2012 Benefit Outlook of the Cement Industry in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River

The picture shows the new century peak cement CEO Zhu Ge Wenda data photo I. The impact of the macro situation on the regional cement demand 1. The real estate industry countries continue to insist on the real estate industry is not relaxed and controlled, has affected the increase in the area of ​​real estate starts and has started projects The construction progress and the negative growth of land transfer area indicate that the demand for cement in the real estate industry has shrunk for a long period of time at least until the first half of 2013.

2. The labor resources and accumulated funds of the Ministry of Rural Landlord and the more developed southern provinces are returning. Because of the “cost-effectiveness” caused by the huge gap between the extremely high prices in developed regions and the low cost of housing construction in central rural areas, rural housing construction in the central region will increase significantly and become a bright spot for cement consumption growth in the central region. In the eastern region, the dual structure of urban and rural areas, to a certain extent, also promotes the heat of rural housing construction to last for a longer period of time, but the momentum is not strong in the central region.

3. Urban infrastructure construction In the three to five years prior to 2011, the central region took advantage of its latecomer and obtained more funds from land sales, government platforms, and national fiscal transfer payments, supporting the construction of urban infrastructure. The rapid development has driven the rapid growth of cement consumption. This trend will continue for some time this year, but the latest to the second half of 2012, with the gradual reduction of the above sources of funds, the positive effects of the above factors on cement consumption will gradually subside. .

4. National Investment Key Projects As the country substantially increases investment in people's livelihood and other aspects, the gradual reduction of national investment priorities has become an irreversible inevitable trend. In 2012, the demand for cement consumption of key national investment projects will continue to decrease, and long-term Stay low.

5. The policy orientation and capital investment of the construction of water conservancy facilities, and the investment in water conservancy facilities construction will have significant growth in 2012. However, due to its limited absolute quantity, the cement consumption driven will be very limited, including the multiplier effect. It is estimated that the national increase will not exceed 100 million tons.

Based on the comprehensive analysis, it is expected that in 2012, the cement consumption in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai may decrease by 5%, while the cement consumption in Hunan, Hubei, Chongqing and other regions may only increase by no more than 5%.

2. Analysis and Judgment of the Industry Situation in the Region 1. The area with the largest increase in production capacity and the largest increase in production capacity is Anhui. It is estimated that more than 30 million tons of new cement clinker production capacity will be put on the market. These clinker can produce 50 million tons of cement. It is approximately equal to the cement consumption of the Hubei market for the year of 2008.

The increase in production capacity in other regions in the region is modest. However, given the limited increase in market demand, its impact cannot be underestimated.

The market consolidation in overcapacity regions in the Chuanyu region outside the region is ongoing, and the impact on this region will be reduced this year.

2, industry self-regulatory variables to reduce the difficulty of increasing the effect of extreme industry self-discipline to reduce the variable, is between Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan, Hubei, Anhui and other regions have accepted the initiative to limit production and protection of this seemingly helpless but practical and effective industry self-discipline model.

It is said that the difficulty of industrial self-regulation has increased, which means that the new production capacity in Anhui is too large. If Anhui's production capacity is not proactively controlled, the effect of industry self-regulation in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan, Hubei, Chongqing and other regions will be greatly reduced or even lost. Since the beginning of 2012, it has been a response to this situation that various companies have not greeted each other with a new posture.

It is said that the effect of industry self-regulation is extremely extreme. It is in the following two different situations:

1) If Anhui cement companies do not actively participate in industry self-regulation, regional cement prices will remain depressed for a long period of time. This is difficult for large companies such as HL, NF and HX. The reason is very simple. ".

2) If Anhui cement companies take the initiative to participate in industry self-regulation, regional cement prices will quickly rise. This is also very difficult for large companies such as HL and HX. The reason is very simple. The so-called "finance tigers is easy to tie in."

3) All regions are actively exploring new modes of cooperation, indicating that industry self-regulation has gradually become an industry consensus. For example, the cement companies in the eastern Hubei market are exploring the establishment of a joint-funded trading company, and the trading companies have unified and coordinated the clinker inside and outside the region. The integrated sales in the eastern Hubei market will, if successful, have a positive effect on stabilizing regional prices.

In the long run, the bottom of the cement price has obviously increased. However, it is obviously not easy for the peak price of cement to break through the high level at the end of 2010.

III. Prospects for Industry Benefits in the Basin in 2012 (for forecast only, no conclusions)

First quarter:

Corporate Strategy: Dynamic Trends of Welcome Enterprises: Bargaining, Unwillingness to Concede Business Operations: Sales Volume Declined, Benefits Significantly Decreased from the Same Period of Last Year Q2:

Corporate Strategy: Seeking the Dynamics of Cooperative Enterprises: Bargaining, concessions, business operations: Sales volume rebounded from the first quarter, and profitability rebound was not obvious in the third quarter:

Corporate strategy: Deepening the dynamics of cooperative enterprises: A large-scale enterprise has taken the initiative to save energy and limit production, and other companies have followed up on business operations: sales volume has decreased compared with the second quarter, but benefits have obviously risen in the fourth quarter:

Corporate strategy: Maintaining the dynamics of cooperative enterprises: Major companies have appropriate control of production capacity, while other companies actively cooperate with business operations: macro warming, sales volume rises over the third quarter, and benefits continue to rise. Mind result: The cement industry has taken the lead in summing up the concept of sustainable development in excess industries. ”