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2014 CPI increase or low innovation
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that CPI rose by 1.4% year-on-year in November 2014, up from 2.0% in the previous November. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, since December 2014, the market prices of edible agricultural products in 36 large and medium-sized cities have increased slightly. Among them, the average price of 18 kinds of vegetables has increased significantly, and the price of pork has continued to decline.
For the December CPI, Everbright Securities, Haitong Securities, Founder Securities, China Merchants Securities and other institutions are expected to increase by 1.5%. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, pointed out that vegetable prices have risen significantly since December, but the price of edible oil, pork, domestic refined oil and residential prices have fallen, plus the hikes have returned to zero. The year-on-year increase was around 1.3%-1.5%.
From the perspective of the annual CPI increase, the CPI rose by only 2% in the first 11 months of 2014, and the December increase is expected to be basically the same as that in November. Therefore, in the opinion of some forecasting institutions, the year-on-year CPI increase will be Maintaining around 2%, it is a foregone conclusion to complete the 3.5% price target for the whole year.
The reporter noted that if the CPI increase in 2014 is finally around 2%, it will hit a new low since the negative growth of CPI in 2009. Zhou Jingwei, a senior researcher at the Institute of International Finance of the Bank of China, told the China News Network that the CPI rose in 2014, which was closely related to factors such as economic downturn, slowing aggregate demand and overcapacity.
This year, prices are expected to continue to run low.
For this year's price situation, experts believe that due to the steady economic slowdown this year, it is expected that inflationary pressure will be small, prices will remain at a low level, and the annual increase may be lower than 2014, and the risk of deflation needs to be guarded.
Zhou Jingqi said that in 2015, although the price of public utility products and the price increase of some service industries will exert certain upward pressure on CPI, economic growth will slow down further in 2015, and the price of food and housing will not increase greatly. Prices such as international commodity prices will continue to remain low, and weak demand will lower prices. Therefore, prices are expected to continue to operate at low levels this year.
"Under the new normal economy, a prudent monetary policy will remain moderately moderate, and the possibility of substantial relaxation will be small. There will be no monetary conditions for raising the price level. However, due to the slowdown in economic growth, the cycle of agricultural products such as pork will be significantly longer. The increase has also narrowed significantly, indicating that the possibility of a sharp rise in food prices in the future will push up prices.†Lian Ping pointed out that, on the whole, the overall price level is weaker and the overall level of hikes is significantly lower than last year. The year-on-year increase in CPI in 2015 will be lower than in 2014.
Under this circumstance, many institutions and experts reminded that in 2015, we need to be alert to the risk of deflation. Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that the pattern of economic downturn in 2015 has not changed. The CPI increase will enter the “1†era, the industrial producers' factory price (PPI) will continue to be negative, and the risk of deflation will intensify. Considering the domestic economy and the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, the first half of 2015, especially the first quarter, is a good time window for monetary easing. It is expected that interest rates will fall again in the first quarter. (Finish)
2014 CPI announced today that it is afraid of innovation and low need to be alert to deflation
Abstract The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the December 2014 and full-year consumer price index (CPI). Experts predict that the CPI increase in December may be around 1.5%, and the annual CPI increase may be around 2%. There is no suspense in completing the annual price target, and...
The National Bureau of Statistics will today announce the December 2014 and full-year consumer price index (CPI). Experts predict that the CPI increase in December may be around 1.5%, and the annual CPI increase may be around 2%. There is no suspense in completing the full-year price target, and the annual price increase may hit a new low in recent years. Looking forward to 2015, prices are expected to continue to operate at low levels, and we need to be alert to deflation risks.