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China's economy is still in a soft landing track
On September 1, the official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) of China and the final value of HSBC China's manufacturing PMI were released. The data shows that in the global economy, China's PMI is still more optimistic and positive in August: the official PMI rebounded compared with last month, which is the first time in four months that the index has risen; seasonally adjusted HSBC China's PMI rebounded from 49.3% to 49.9%. Although it showed that the manufacturing industry was weak for two consecutive months, the contraction was extremely slight. Several foreign bank experts who were connected with this reporter on the same day said that in the context of a certain slowdown and panic in the global economy, China's manufacturing industry still maintains a stable growth trend, which is not only conducive to reducing the Chinese economy. The fear of bottoming out has also made the Chinese economy a "stabilizer" for the global economy to a certain extent. External uncertainty is more worthy of attention Judging from the official PMI sub-indicators, the signals given by them are mixed: the worry is that the new export orders have fallen sharply. The happy new index is that the production index has rebounded. The high purchase price index indicates that China still faces certain input inflationary pressures. Although China's PMI has shown a downward trend in the past few months, the related real economic data has remained at a relatively normal level: power consumption levels have been relatively stable and have shown a steady upward trend in the past few months, industrial The growth rate of the added value also remains within the normal range. Liu Ligang, director of economic research at Greater China in the Global Markets Department of ANZ, believes that these all indicate that China's economic growth still has a strong foundation. He said that China's PMI tends to decline in the second and third quarters and rise in the fourth quarter. This seasonal trend is closely related to China's monetary policy cycle and production cycle. In view of the obvious rebound in the official PMI and HSBC PMI announced on the same day, Liu Ligang believes that PMI is likely to run along its own track in the next few months. Zhang Zhiwei, China's chief economist at Nomura Securities, said that historical data shows that the “difference between new order indicators and finished goods inventory indicators†can predict the PMI trend in the next month to some extent, and this difference is from July. 1.9 rose to 2.2 in August, suggesting that PMI may rise further in September. Given that the tightening policy will not reverse in the short term, Barclays Capital Economist Chang Jian expects industrial activity to continue to slow down in the coming months, and external weakness and uncertainty will cause greater growth than slowing domestic demand. Downside risks. However, due to the gradual unfolding of post-disaster reconstruction activities in Japan, Liu Ligang expects that China's export level will increase. It is worth noting that in the past few months, the trend of HSBC PMI and official PMI has clearly changed, which has caused interest and concern in the market: the former has been below the expansion line of 50 consecutive months for two consecutive months, while the latter has been maintained Above 50. Liu Ligang believes that such differences are mainly caused by different survey samples. Despite this, Liu Ligang said that this difference shows that in the macro-tightening cycle, SMEs are often faced with greater credit tightening pressure due to weaker bargaining power and lower credit ratings. The economy is still on a soft landing track As the downside risks to the global economy have suddenly increased, many foreign investment banks have successively lowered their forecasts for China's economic growth over the past two weeks. However, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Lu Ting believes that the Chinese PMI released on the same day and South Korea's strong export data (up 27.1% in August) will allow Wall Street to raise its forecast for China in the coming months. He continued to maintain the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the second half of the year from 9.6% in the first half of the year to 9.0% to 9.1%. Several other foreign bank experts also hold the view that the Chinese economy is still on a “soft landing†track. Qu Hongbin, chief economist at HSBC China, said that the final value of HSBC's manufacturing PMI rose slightly from the preview in August, and both output and employment indicators rebounded to over 50, reaching the highest level in the past three months, which confirms HSBC has been The view that the Chinese economy will only slow down will not be a "hard landing." Chang Jian believes that GDP growth in 2011 is still on track from 10.3% last year to about 9%. GDP growth in the third quarter will fall to nearly 9%, and in the fourth quarter it will be below 9%. Zhang Zhiwei is more optimistic. He continues to expect GDP growth of 9.3% and 9.5% in the third and fourth quarters respectively, and 9.5% in the whole year. “Most of the August macro data, which will be released on September 9th, should provide more comprehensive information on the current state of the economy. If industrial production growth in August is slightly lower as suggested by Nomura’s seasonally adjusted PMI data, this will strengthen We believe that China's economy is in a soft landing." Zhang Zhiwei also said that short-term risks mainly come from inflation, according to recent weekly food price data, inflation is still running at a high level. Liu Ligang believes that good fundamentals will not only promote China's economic growth, but will also make China's economy perform well in global financial turmoil and economic slowdown. There are three reasons for this. First, after the current financial crisis broke out, the Chinese economy was mainly driven by factors such as domestic demand, and the contribution rate of net exports was almost negligible. Rising wage levels, ongoing health care reforms, and tax reforms are also helping to drive domestic consumption. At the same time, the construction of a public housing system that is being vigorously promoted is also conducive to promoting investment growth. Second, China's monetary policy tightening is more "advanced", which means that there is more obvious room for vacillation, which paves the way for a response to a severe global economic slowdown. Third, China and developed economies have become “interdependent,†and the Chinese economy has gradually become an important stabilizer for the global economy. Global financial markets are increasingly dependent on China’s growth. External changes are key to future policy As for policy prospects, several experts still believe that monetary policy will be flexible in responding to changing situations, and external progress will be the key to observing policy directions in the coming months. In view of the latest article published by Premier Wen Jiabao, the price stability is still the government's top priority, and the direction of macroeconomic regulation and control cannot be changed. This indicates that the government is still concerned about controlling inflation in the face of deteriorating global economic prospects. Chang Jian continues to expect, in the short term. China will not loosen its monetary policy, but the tightening cycle is nearing its end, and interest rates will be raised at most once, and “directed relaxation†such as measures to support fragile areas in the economy, such as SME financing, may start. Liu Ligang also has a similar view. He said that the expansion of the deposit reserve base is intended to limit the off-balance sheet business of banks and limit the liquidity of the market. He said that the move also shows that the central bank's current monetary policy stance has not changed. As the actual negative interest rate is still prevalent, he maintains the forecast that the central bank will raise interest rates again for the rest of the year. He also expects the appreciation of the yuan against the dollar may accelerate, reflecting the current trend of a basket of currencies. Lu Ting and Zhang Zhiwei have slightly different views. The former continues to expect China to adopt a “wide fiscal and tight currency†stance, that is, during the rest of the year, neither the interest rate nor the deposit reserve ratio, the broad money (M2) growth target, and the annual loan limit will be raised. The fiscal policy will be more “positive†and fiscal spending on affordable housing, water conservancy and other public works will increase. The latter is closely related to the lag and cumulative effect of monetary policy from the latest article of Premier Wen Jiabao and realizes the complexity of the current domestic and international economic situation, saying that he is worried about the risk of excessive policy tightening and interprets this as continuing to raise interest rates. Or the probability of raising the deposit reserve ratio has been reduced.