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China's manufacturing PMI in June was 50.2%, a new low in 7 months.
In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that there is still downward pressure on current economic development. However, in light of historical data, this month's fall has a certain seasonality. It tends to fall back in June every year. This year's decline is the lowest in the calendar year, indicating that the foundation for economic stability is forming. From the 11 sub-indices, compared with the previous month, the finished goods inventory index, raw material inventory index, and supplier delivery time index have increased, and the remaining indexes have declined to varying degrees. Among them, the new export order index, purchase volume index, and purchase price index fell more obviously, with a drop of about 3 percentage points. In terms of industries, 10 industries including textile and apparel apparel, food and beverage refined tea manufacturing, metal products, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing are higher than 50%; ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, general equipment manufacturing, and chemistry 10 industries such as raw materials and chemical manufacturing are less than 50%. In terms of enterprise scale, large enterprises are above 50%; medium-sized enterprises are located at 50%; and small and micro enterprises are below 50%. In response to the survey of manufacturing purchasing managers in June, special analyst Zhang Liqun said: "The PMI index continued to fall in June, but the magnitude has decreased significantly, indicating that the future economic growth may decline and stabilize. The recent steady growth policies have been introduced, investment The growth rate decreased, the actual growth rate of consumption increased slightly, and the export growth rate rebounded remarkably. These also supported the expectation that the future economic growth will stabilize and stabilize. The new order index and purchase price index are still falling, indicating that the production expectations are affected. There are still many factors, and it is expected that the recovery of production will take some time.†The new order index fell back to less than 50%. The new order index for this month was 49.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. From the industry perspective, the metal products industry, electrical machinery equipment manufacturing and computer communication electronic equipment and instrumentation manufacturing industries and other 9 industries are higher than 50%; textile industry, pharmaceutical manufacturing, petroleum processing and coking industry, automobile manufacturing, chemistry 12 industries such as raw materials and chemical manufacturing are below 50%. The production index fell slightly. The production index for this month was 52%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. From the industry perspective, 11 industries including textile and garment apparel industry, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, railway and ship aerospace transportation equipment manufacturing, food and wine and beverage refined tea manufacturing are higher than 50%; petroleum processing And coking industry, chemical fiber and rubber (23060, 430.00, 1.90%) plastics (9710, 140.00, 1.46%) products industry, textile industry, special equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing and other 10 industries are less than 50%. In terms of enterprise scale, large and medium-sized enterprises are higher than 50%; small and micro enterprises are lower than 50%. The new export order index and import index fell. The new export order index for this month was 47.5%, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of industry, 12 industries such as automobile manufacturing, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, petroleum processing and coking, and general equipment manufacturing are higher than 50%; textile industry, chemical fiber and rubber plastic products industry, electrical machinery equipment manufacturing industry 9 industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry are less than 50%. The import index for this month was 46.5%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. From the industry point of view, the metal products industry, agricultural and sideline food processing industry, railway and ship aerospace transportation equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, non-metallic mineral products industry and other seven industries are higher than 50%; textile industry, pharmaceutical manufacturing 14 industries such as general equipment manufacturing are less than 50%. The purchase volume index has dropped significantly. This month's purchase volume index was 46.9%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous month. From the industry point of view, the metal products industry, electrical machinery equipment manufacturing, computer communication electronic equipment and instrumentation manufacturing industry and other eight industries are higher than 50%; textile industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, special equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing Wait for 13 industries below 50%. From the regional perspective, the west is higher than 50%; the eastern, central and northeast are below 50%. In terms of enterprise scale, large, medium and small and micro enterprises are all below 50%. The purchase price index continued to fall. The purchase price index for this month was 41.2%, down 3.6 percentage points from the previous month. From the industry point of view, the tobacco products industry is higher than 50%; the agricultural and sideline food processing industry and wood processing and furniture manufacturing industries are located at 50%; petroleum processing and coking industry, chemical fiber and rubber plastic products industry, ferrous metal smelting and 18 industries such as rolling processing industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, and metal products industry are less than 50%. From the regional perspective, the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions are all below 50%. In terms of enterprise scale, large, medium and small and micro enterprises are all below 50%. Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Survey Description 1. Main Indicators Explain the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which is an index compiled from the monthly survey results of the company's purchasing managers. It covers all aspects of procurement, production, and circulation. It is one of the leading indicators for monitoring macroeconomic trends in the world and has strong predictive and early warning effects. PMI usually takes 50% as the cut-off point of economic strength. When PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the expansion of manufacturing economy; below 50% reflects the contraction of manufacturing economy. 2. The scope of the investigation involves 31 major industries in the manufacturing sector of the National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T4754-2011), and 820 sample companies from the country were selected for investigation. 3. Survey method The manufacturing procurement manager survey uses the PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, which is based on the major categories of the manufacturing industry. The sample size of the industry is allocated according to the added value of the added value of the manufacturing industry. A sample of the probability that is proportional to the income of the company's main business. This survey uses a networked direct reporting survey to conduct a monthly survey of corporate purchasing managers. 4. Calculation method The manufacturing purchasing manager questionnaire covers 11 production volumes, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, import, purchase price, raw material inventory, employees, supplier delivery time, etc. problem. The diffusion index is calculated separately for each question, which is the percentage of the number of companies that are responding positively plus half of the percentage of the answer. PMI is a composite index calculated by weighting five diffusion indices (classification indices). The five sub-indices and their weights are based on their prior impact on the economy. Specifically, it includes: new order index, weight is 30%; production index, weight is 25%; employee index, weight is 20%; supplier delivery time index, weight is 15%; raw material inventory index, weight It is 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is the inverse index, and the inverse operation is performed when synthesizing the PMI composite index. 5. Seasonal Adjustment The Purchasing Manager Survey is a monthly survey. Due to seasonal factors, the data fluctuates greatly. The PMI composite index and each sub-index released today are seasonally adjusted data.