Coal market may reverse in 2012

Sinochem Xinxinxun is subject to the dual restriction of the release of production capacity and the reduction of demand. In recent years, the coal market with continued hot weather may reverse in 2012. Except for special coal and rare coal, the price of bituminous coal for thermal coal, thermal coal and chemical industry It will be difficult to continue the upward trend and may even decline.” This was the information that was disclosed to the reporter by Zhao Shengmao, the secretary general of the Shaanxi Coal Industry Association, during the first meeting of the Shaanxi Provincial Energy Chemical and Chemical Geological Union at the first session of the last weekend.

Since the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, domestic production and sales volume of coal have risen sharply year after year because of strong domestic and international demand and rising international oil prices, which have caused many positive stimulus such as the upward movement of energy and resource products. In 2010, the country’s coal production reached 3.24 billion tons, an increase of 1.13 billion tons compared with 2005, with an average annual increase of 10.71%. At the same time as production increased, coal prices also soared. Taking Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal excellent coal as an example, it was only 450 yuan (t price, the same below) in 2005, and 815 yuan in 2010, with an average annual increase of 16.22%. However, comprehensive analysis of various factors, the coal industry boom has reached a peak, is expected to appear inflection point in the second quarter of next year.

——Overcapacity statistics show that in 2010, China’s total coal mine production capacity has reached 3.7 billion tons. Calculated according to 3.24 billion tons of output that year, the production capacity has played 87.57%. Taking into account the special requirements of the coal industry for safe production, and the annual suspension of production and rectification for about one month, the capacity and production in 2010 are basically balanced. However, with the completion of coal resource integration and mine reorganization in Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Heilongjiang, Guizhou, Shandong, and Anhui provinces, large-scale mines planned for these places will be put into operation from 2011 to 2012. In addition to the 2009 national RMB 4 trillion investment plan, the large-scale modernized coal mines launched by the coal industry will also release production capacity from 2012 to 2013. It is expected that in 2012, the national total coal production capacity will reach 4.2 billion tons, which has already reached the 2015 national plan. Capacity scale. Excessive coal production capacity makes it difficult for coal prices to continue to rise.

—— Rapid increase in output Due to the impact of domestic and international macroeconomic conditions, China’s economic growth began to slow down in 2011, and the economic growth rate in 2012 will further fall below 8.5%. In spite of this, due to the unabated enthusiasm of local governments in pursuit of high GDP, they will continue to take active measures to promote the rapid growth of local economy. Coal, oil, natural gas and other resource products can both stimulate local GDP growth and bring about considerable financial revenues, and have already formed a scale. Can local governments not push their production capacity to be released as soon as possible? Under such circumstances, coal companies have to increase production and stabilize production and increase coal supply. From January to November 2011, the coal output in Shaanxi Province was 3.6403.29 million tons, and it is expected to exceed 400 million tons in the whole year, an increase of over 15% from the same period of last year. In Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, which are the top two coal producers in the country, this year's coal output will exceed 800 million tons. In 2012, it will sprint 900 million tons. In addition, Xinjiang, Hebei, Guizhou, Henan, Ningxia and other provinces, this year and next year, coal production will also maintain an increase of more than 14%. "The coal-producing provinces will continue to significantly increase their coal production in order to ensure that the economy does not experience major landslides. This will inevitably lead to oversupply in the coal market and suppress prices down," said Zhao Shengmao.

- Demand has shrunk. "If the growth of coal production capacity and demand can maintain rapid growth, the prosperity of the coal industry will continue. But the reality is that in 2012, domestic and international demand for coal will not only fail to increase substantially, but Shrinkage occurs." Zhao Shengmao worriedly said. He said that the introduction and implementation of the regulation of real estate policies will not only help squeeze the real estate bubble, and prevent and resolve financial risks. In addition, the high energy-consuming industries have played a role in wage collection, which will effectively curb the consumption of resources such as coal, petroleum, and electricity. As the country's policies, strengths, and determination in regulating the real estate market will not be shaken next year, domestic demand for high energy-consuming products such as steel, cement, and polyvinyl chloride will be further reduced, so that the operating rate of related industries will decline, and then coke and electricity consumption will be reduced. The sharp decrease in coal consumption has exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand in the coal market and suppressed the decline in coal prices.

- The global economic slowdown The impact of the global financial crisis on the real economy is far from over, and it may even increase. In particular, the spread and fermentation of the European debt crisis will increase the probability of the world economy bottoming out. The demand for resources including oil, natural gas, and coal will be reduced, and at least the demand growth will slow. In addition, the success of industrialization of unconventional oil and gas resources such as coalbed methane, shale gas, and shale oil in the United States, Canada, and some European countries will significantly increase their natural oil self-sufficiency rate, reduce imports, and make international crude oil and natural gas prices lack of buyers. Supported the downward movement, which in turn triggered the downward movement of the coal price center of the same resource products, countervailing pressure on domestic coal prices, forcing domestic coal prices to end the upward trend and turning heads down.

However, Zhao Shengmao also reminded: As anthracite and high-quality coking coal have become scarce resources, and are strictly controlled by the state and are in the hands of a few companies, these companies have strong market control and may be able to adjust the pace of production release according to market demand. Therefore, although the price of thermal coal, thermal coal and bituminous coal for chemical use will loosen or even decline in 2012, the prices of anthracite lump coal and high quality coking coal will remain strong.

Experts pointed out that this change in the coal market is beneficial to reducing the overall cost of chemical companies, but for chemical companies that still use smokeless lump coal as raw materials, the cost disadvantages of chemical companies using bituminous coal as raw materials will further increase. To expand, only by changing the route of raw materials as soon as possible and adjusting the product structure can we avoid being eliminated.