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During the May 1 st holiday of the year, although US crude oil inventories remained at a high level, supported by US employment data and supported by the US and European Central Bank's loose monetary policies, international oil prices oscillated upward. As the domestic refined oil market disappeared as the holiday season faded, the wait-and-see atmosphere gradually became stronger and the overall market sentiment was lighter.
On the last trading day of the week, the New York crude oil futures price closed at 95.61 US dollars a barrel, up 2.8% from last week; Brent oil prices closed at 104.19 US dollars a barrel, a week-on-year increase of 1%.
The US Department of Labor announced on May 3 that the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States was 165,000 in April, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month to 7.5%, which was better than market expectations. The Federal Reserve will continue to keep the Federal Reserve interest rate close to zero ultra-low levels and implement a quantitative easing policy of US$85 billion per month. Two factors strongly support the formation of international oil prices.
At the same time, the European Central Bank also decided to cut the leading euro zone interest rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.5%, which was the first time that the European Central Bank adjusted interest rates since July 2012. The Fed said on the 1st that it will continue to implement quantitative easing policies to stimulate economic growth. Analysts believe that the European Central Bank’s interest rate cuts may help the euro zone’s economic recovery in the euro zone’s declining inflation rate and weak economic growth.
In addition, a report released this week by the Standard & Poor's Company showed that housing prices in major cities in the United States increased at a faster pace in February this year, and the year-on-year increase was the highest since the real estate bubble burst in 2006, indicating that the US real estate market continues to recover. The US consumer confidence index issued by the United States Economic Research Institute's World Federation of Large Enterprises rebounded in April after falling in March.
However, crude oil inventories released by the US Energy Information Administration have dragged down oil prices. As of the week of 26, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 6.7 million barrels to a record high of 3.953 billion barrels. As the world's largest oil consumer, the rise in U.S. crude oil inventories has caused the market to worry about the weakening of U.S. oil demand.
For the market, Ma Yan, analyst at Zhongyu Information, said that the recent international crude oil prices have skyrocketed and fluctuate, and the trend is uncertain. Affected by the US debt issue, short-term international oil prices still have downside risks.
Domestically, prior to the May 1 holiday, holidays favorably supported the increase in terminal consumption to boost the industry’s mentality. However, after the holiday season, as the holiday interest disappeared, traders held more and more currencies, and downstream users entered the market with small orders, leading to the market. Trading atmosphere was light.
According to Zhongyu Information’s oil price data of 26 major cities in China, the average price of China National Petroleum Co., Ltd. and 93.63 yuan per ton of gasoline was on May 3, and the average price of diesel oil of Guosan 0 was 7,793 yuan per ton. The average price of gasoline and diesel is 449 and 339 yuan higher than the average retail sales price; the average price of gasoline in the country's No. 93 is 8,975 yuan/ton, and the average price of diesel in the country's No. 4 is 7,975 yuan per ton. The average price of China's gasoline and diesel is higher than retail sales. The average price difference was 932 and 575 yuan/ton respectively.
Ma Yan said that although the recent rebound in international oil prices helped to digest the fall before the May Day holiday, this move did not improve the domestic soft gasoline and diesel market. Under the new mechanism, businesses are buying more on demand, and speculation and speculation have decreased substantially. With the exception of the Beijing region, which has been pushing up the market to slightly increase the listing price, most of the domestic refined oil market has been in a steady state, and the market is still dull.
In terms of sub-regions, prices in the South China, Yanjiang, and Southwest markets are stable, and the purchases and sales of gasoline and diesel are sluggish. The trading prices in the East China market are slightly loose. The main competitions are fiercely competing with each other to compete for prices and the supply of low-cost resources continues to increase. Market merchants continue to make profits and the market is active. The refining industry continued to decline steadily, and the northwest and northeast China were stable. The market was difficult to fluctuate. The Shandong refinery experienced a declining trend and the refinery sales were poor.
Treasure Island said that in the short term, the international crude oil price will continue to fluctuate, and the domestic refined oil market will continue to slump. Affected by this, Shandong gasoline and diesel market is difficult to get rid of the current predicament, the difference between the price of the main unit and the price of Shandong refining is relatively small, so that some users in the surrounding area from the Shandong area to reduce the amount of purchase, coupled with the slow increase in terminal demand, the middle and lower reaches of the consumer database In addition to the small amount of procurement required, so the refining is still dominated by the bank's debasement, and the supply of resources continues to exceed supply.
For the next oil price adjustment, Ma Yan said that the current price of crude oil is still higher than the benchmark price at the time of the last price adjustment. It is estimated that the next price adjustment will be raised. However, there are still four working days from the price adjustment on the 10th, and the specific price adjustment is still expected. It is determined by the trend of international crude oil prices in the later period. At present, the adjustment rate is forecasted to be relatively small, so the price adjustment may be stranded. Therefore, the market has a relatively strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the prices of gasoline and diesel in Shandong will be difficult to improve in the short term. 