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Germany shuts down nuclear power, China's photovoltaic companies laughed
The tumultuous PV industry has ushered in long-lost benefits, and the news that Germany shut down its nuclear power plants has excited domestic PV companies. The industry generally believes that the German move will constitute a long-term positive for the renewable energy industry, and the overcapacity photovoltaic industry is expected to gain new development space. Since Germany announced that it will close all nuclear power plants by 2022 at the latest, European new energy stocks will start to rise and will be passed on to the Chinese capital market the next day. Yesterday, Jiangsu Hongbao (002071, shares it), Jiangsu Sunshine (600220, shares it), Leshan Power (600644, shares it) and other A shares appeared a long-lost rise, the photovoltaic company leader GCL-Poly, the cumulative increase of more than 10% on two trading days . “The news that Germany shuts down nuclear power is a stimulus for the photovoltaic industry. At present, the photovoltaic industry faces many problems such as cost, grid connection and overcapacity. The shutdown of nuclear power in Germany will be beneficial to PV companies, but the actual effect of the market will not be immediately reflected. "The staff of the Jiangsu Sunshine Board of Secretaries said to the Securities Times reporter. Huabao Securities reported that the total amount of nuclear power generation in Germany in 2010 was 140 TWh. If it is completely replaced by photovoltaic power generation, assuming that the annual PV generation hours are 800 hours, a total of 175 GW of PV installed capacity is required, which is an average of 17.5 GW per year in 10 years. If 50% is replaced by PV, a total of 87.5 GW is required, with an average annual rate of 8.75 GW. . In contrast, the new installed capacity of photovoltaics in Germany in 2010 was about 7.4 GW. It can be seen that the gradual closure of nuclear power plants will leave a broad market space for the photovoltaic industry. For Chinese PV companies, due to the inconsistency between power grid construction and power plant construction, the power grid cannot be connected in time or connected to the grid, which is an important reason for the current difficult development of the domestic PV industry. The market is more willing to blame the current dilemma of the domestic PV industry on “high costâ€. "If PV companies can significantly reduce the cost of power generation, the existing energy structure will change, and the excess capacity will naturally be reversed." Donita researcher Don Xiaodong told reporters. In China, the power generation cost of 1.1 yuan to 1.2 yuan / kWh makes solar energy not recognized by the market, and exports have become the main livelihood path for domestic PV companies. Among them, Germany, Italy and other European and American countries are the most important sales of domestic PV companies. market. Therefore, the policy orientation of these countries also determines the vitality of domestic PV companies. According to the data, due to the continuous improvement of photovoltaic solar technology and the inexhaustible solar energy resources, governments have accelerated the development of solar energy. Just earlier this year, Germany’s 2011 mid-term tariff cuts were reached, and the country’s solar energy association welcomed it, raising the ratio of solar power generation to total power generation from the current 2% to at least 10% by 2020. The goal. At the same time that the German government announced the closure of nuclear power, the country's renewable energy association also said that Germany will invest 200 billion euros in the development of wind power and solar energy in 2020, and it is not difficult to see Germany's attitude towards the development of solar energy. Tang Xiaodong believes that in terms of Germany's exit from nuclear power, policy promotion is more important than actual demand. At the same time, nuclear power exit means that renewable energy plays a more important role. For solar energy, the lower the cost, the more important it can play. . At the same time, the industry also believes that although the news of Germany's shutdown of nuclear power will benefit the solar industry in the long run, in the current solar energy industry chain, the average selling price of photovoltaic products generally declines, while the sales inventory in Europe is quite high, so domestic PV companies The current crisis has not been eliminated.