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First, the peak of China's crude steel consumption is approaching, and the consumer turning point is approaching. From 1980 to 2010, China's crude steel consumption increased from 43.3 million tons to 596 million tons, an increase of 13 times, and the average annual growth rate was 26.33%. The data show that 50% to 55% of China's crude steel consumption in recent years has been consumed by infrastructure construction and the real estate industry. So far, China's cumulative consumption of crude steel has exceeded 6.8 billion tons, close to the current level of crude steel consumption in the United States. At the same time, China's per capita steel consumption reached 444 kg in 2010, which is higher than the per capita consumption of developed countries such as the United States, Britain and France. In 2010, China's per capita GDP was 7431 US dollars, which is expected to exceed 8,000 US dollars this year. It began to approach the peak of the “S†shape change rule of per capita crude steel consumption (the peak per capita steel consumption appeared in the per capita GDP of 10,000 to 12,000 US dollars). It should be pointed out that in response to the world financial crisis, the country's 4 trillion investment in 2009 led to more than 20 trillion investment, which greatly stimulated the construction of domestic infrastructure, especially with the transformation of economic growth mode and the implementation of industrial restructuring policies. China's steel consumption will enter its peak period ahead of 2013-2015 and will have an impact on the global iron ore supply and demand pattern.
Secondly, in recent years, China's demand has driven the rapid expansion of international iron ore production capacity, and the iron ore supply and demand relationship will undergo major changes. In the past 10 years, nearly 90% of the world's crude steel consumption has been consumed by China. Stimulated by the continued rise in iron ore prices, international iron ore producers continue to expand their production capacity and supply capacity is growing rapidly. From 2011 to 2015, mining companies in Australia, Brazil, India, Southeast Asia and other countries and regions have announced large-scale expansion plans. According to the joint metal network research report, the global iron ore output will reach 2.28 billion tons in 2012 and will reach 2.7 billion tons by 2015. Take the world's three major iron ore producers as an example: Rio Tinto recently issued a statement to increase the annual production of iron ore from the current 222 million tons to 333 million tons. This capacity expansion plan will be completed by 2015, increasing production. The range is as high as 50%. Brazil's Vale is planning to increase its annual iron ore production capacity from 300 million tons in 2010 to 450 million tons by 2014. In 2010, BHP Billiton approved $1.93 billion for the sixth phase of the fast-growing project in Pilbara, Western Australia. The company's iron ore capacity in Western Australia will reach 240 million tons in 2013. With the continuous expansion of international iron ore production capacity and the inflection point of China's demand, the iron ore supply and demand relationship will be reversed, and some of the rapidly expanding production capacity may become redundant.
Second, domestic iron ore resources have not been fully and effectively allocated. According to the latest data on the current situation of the utilization of mineral resources in China, the current reserves of iron ore reserves in China are 62 billion tons, while the occupancy rate is only 46%. There is still considerable potential for development and utilization of unoccupied resources. For example, iron ore resource reserves in Liaoning, Hebei and Sichuan account for 47% of the country's total, and the resource occupancy rates are 34%, 33%, 27.3%, and 60% to 70% of the resources are not yet allocated. The resource advantage is not fully realized. Play. Therefore, considering the national macro-control policies, the high cost of imported iron ore, the release of unoccupied resource reserves and the improvement of supply capacity will, to a certain extent, alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of iron ore in China and reduce the dependence of iron ore on external dependence. Become an inevitable result.
Finally, the proportion of domestic scrap recycling will increase significantly, reducing the dependence of China's iron ore on external dependence. Experience in developed countries shows that when crude steel consumption is close to peak, scrap steel will be scaled up as secondary resource recovery. Last year, China produced a total of 83.1 million tons of scrap, accounting for nearly 14% of consumption, compared with 76.2 million tons in 2009, an increase of 6.9 million tons; of which social scrap purchases were 51 million tons, an increase from 45.8 million tons in 2009. 5.2 million tons, an increase of 82.46% over the average annual growth of 2.85 million tons during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. With the advent of China's crude steel consumption turning point, social scrap has moved toward a high-yield period, and secondary resource recovery will gradually enter a period of scale.
Since the 2008 world financial crisis, the huge demand for mineral resources in emerging economies led by China has become an important factor in the recovery of the world economy. Recently, affected by a series of factors such as the continued debt of the European debt crisis, the continued downturn in the US economy, and the increasing inflationary pressures in emerging economies, both the developed countries and emerging economies have seen economic growth slow down. Global Economy II The risk of the second bottom is increased. Since August this year, the prices of bulk mineral products have fallen sharply, and the mining situation has undergone tremendous changes. As the world's largest emerging economy, China's GDP growth rate in the first three quarters of this year was 9.7%, 9.5%, and 9.1%, respectively, showing a quarter-to-quarter decline, and the economic growth rate slowed down noticeably. International rating company Standard & Poor's reported on June 2 that if China's economic growth rate suddenly slows down, the world's major commodity prices may fall by 50% to 75%. Taking into account the impact of China's demand on iron ore prices, once China's demand decreases, iron ore prices will fall sharply.
In summary, due to the inflection point of China's iron ore demand, the continuous expansion of international production capacity, and the devastating global economic recovery, the supply and demand pattern of the international iron ore market has quietly changed, and the high price of resources may be broken and will gradually enter new. A more reasonable price platform. The iron ore supply and demand sides should have a clear and sober understanding - the reasonable price level of iron ore is the prerequisite for the benign development of the international iron ore market.
Iron ore high price operation era will end
The rapid development of China's economy, especially the rapid advancement of urbanization and industrialization, has driven the demand for global iron ore, the import of iron ore has soared, the dependence on foreign countries has continued to rise, and the international iron ore prices have continued to operate at high levels. At the same time, driven by profit, the world's iron ore production capacity continued to expand, and supply capacity increased steadily. However, with the arrival of China's crude steel consumption turning point and global iron ore production capacity, the global supply and demand pattern of iron ore will change. The author believes that the era of high-priced iron ore operation will end.