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January 7 famous futures company today commented
LME Market Commentary on the day: LME Market: The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper closed lower on Thursday as the dollar rally weighed on market sentiment. However, the bargain-hunting takeover orders that emerged before the close cut the fall in copper prices. "The market has been killing since the beginning of the year. Fall. People expect the market to plunge further, but the price of copper has stayed at historically high levels. "A trader of LME said," This may be a good opportunity to re-establish long positions." Three-month copper closed at $2,951, leaving the Asian market earlier Approximately $3,000 was touched and closed at 2,969 on Wednesday. It once fell to $2,942.50 during the session. Three-month aluminum closed down $20 to $1,805. Since last week, the dollar has fallen out of a historic low above $1.3600 against the euro, and the dollar has The recovery has led to a sharp fall in base metals this week. The dollar's rise has made base metals denominated in US dollars become expensive for other currency holders. A fund source expects that the metal market will fluctuate in the next few days, but it is more inclined to decline. He said, "This year's shorting of metal is more profitable than a long one." Calyon analyst Ahmed said, "The rise in commodities has peaked. Will you act in advance and bet that the market is going down? The reason is that the market may stay at these prices for six or nine months. ""I think the rest of the world is more relaxed about the deficit in the United States. They have proved to be able to deal with this problem, and people have begun to pay attention to other figures. "He added:" The U.S. economic growth rate may be close to three times Europe's, so the dollar is weakening and the euro is strengthening. It seems unreasonable. "However, the short-term fundamental situation of metals has not yet been greatly improved, and the global inventory level is still very low." Another trader said, "Popularity has been weakened, but we are still concerned about tight supply of the market." Shanghai Jinpeng: Metal Daily Commentary (copper) 2005-01-06 Overnight London copper rose to 2970 US dollars. The Lun spot premium was pulled back from US$107 to US$133, adding more than 4,800 lots to the holding positions. Yesterday, the exchange rate fluctuates little, and base metals slowly rise with the intervention of buying. London's March-April contract positions increase much more than the spot month's lighten up. The market’s digestion rate of the drop of 260 US dollars surprised us. Today, the Far Eastern electronic trading returned to above 3000 US dollars for a while, causing speculative enthusiasm to burst again. Domestic copper rose by 500 points in the form of sharply lightening positions in recent months. The price of yesterday's daily limit was barely touched today. For the New Year’s trading on the previous month, the market’s bearish view on London’s copper has changed from the original holding of short positions or the chase after falling in London to the current flexible operation, which has intensified the rebound on the surface, but we’re talking about 260 US dollars. The long shadows are awkward. We see any breakthrough in the 2950--3050 dollar range as a short-term intervention point and strictly set a stop-loss of US$50. Based on the judgment that the domestic copper supply situation will change in the second quarter this year, the main attention in the next period will be focused on the observation of the copper roof in London. From the perspective of arbitrage, yesterday's domestic copper price limit reached 10,000, and nearly 20,000 tons of arbitrage profits were closed. This is indeed one of the methods used by the fund to reach out of the warehouse through constant wide shocks. As the market changes, we remain cautious about doing more. (Zhu Law) Daily Metal Assessment (Aluminum) 2005-01-06 Overnight Aluminum closed at 1,825 U.S. dollars, up by 22 U.S. dollars from the previous day's close. After a sharp fall, investors found that aluminum prices have a short-term rebound ability, at 1800. After the dollar’s ​​support was confirmed as effective, buying pushed the aluminum price to a high level, freed from the threat of further pressure from bears. Technically, the next resistance is at 1850 US dollars. If aluminum prices break through the resistance, it will increase long-term confidence and trigger a new round of funds to enter the market to support aluminum prices. On the contrary, aluminum prices will return to decline. The dollar’s ​​rebound yesterday was limited. Concerns over Friday’s non-farm payrolls in the United States restrained buying interventions. The U.S. dollar is currently in a dilemma. The upcoming US employment data may change the recent trend of the U.S. dollar. U.S. aluminum futures quoted in U.S. dollar will fall out of technical control and turn to the U.S. dollar. Shanghai Aluminum was pressured by the resistance of 16,000 yuan today, and low-level buying had been shipped yesterday. There was no active trading atmosphere throughout the day. Most of the time was mainly due to closing positions, and the market was bearish on transactions below 16,000 yuan. Both parties have shown a decline in interest in this price range. Today's spot price is around 16,000 yuan. Buying has recovered slightly. In view of the current recovery period after the loss of Lon Aluminum, Shanghai Aluminum, which is significantly weaker than Lum Al, will not be able to escape the shackles of the previous parallel interval. (Li Ling) Interim Futures: Shanghai copper oscillations rose sharply higher on Thursday, 2004-01-06 Shanghai copper opened slightly higher in early trading on Wednesday after the international copper market rebounded sharply on Wednesday, followed by a sharp pull-up to relatively high levels. The trend of the oscillations, copper prices rose again in the late session under the influence of short positions. At the close, Shanghai Copper's various contracts have risen to varying degrees, with the main contract gaining between 440-550 yuan. The more active March contract, which closed at 28,470 yuan, rose 410 yuan from Wednesday's close, with a volatility of 28,050-28,520 yuan and an opening price of 28,070 yuan. A total of 218,000 contracts were traded in various contracts, of which 11.8 contracts were traded in the March contract. Traders said LME base metals closed mixed on Wednesday. Intraday option-related buying offers some support for prices. Among them, copper transactions were very active and the volume was able to hit a new high for several months. Copper for the last three months ended at $2970, up $59 from Tuesday. COMEX Copper recovered some of the lost ground on Tuesday and closed near its intraday high. Analysts said that due to trade buying and earlier Asian buying, the market remained concerned that short selling did not clear out on Wednesday, but some bold low-order takeover orders still actively pushed copper prices higher. Shanghai copper traders believe that the market's disagreement is very large from the large expansion of the LME copper market on Wednesday and the substantial growth of the previous day's positions, but from the results, the bulls still have a large advantage. In Shanghai copper, the market opened higher and higher in the morning and the trend was far stronger than that of the LME market. Although the price rise was mostly short and short positions, it also showed that the market is more inclined to the market outlook. We believe that although the LME Large Position Report still does not show the role played by the fund in Tuesday's crash, but from the perspective of enlargement of positions and transactions, the market's disagreement is undoubtedly increased, and the trend is more inclined to rise. . Therefore, while the fundamentals are still good, it is still advisable to maintain a relatively high degree of thinking. At least a short-term strong oscillation is expected. From a technical point of view, the sharp rebound in LME copper volume on Tuesday could not be said to be the beginning of yet another round of the market, but it also blocked the possibility that short-term copper in the short term will fall sharply again. At the same time, based on the consideration of the precautionary principle, it is relatively beneficial to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term. (Ye Ling) Sun Weekly: [One-City Market Assessment] 1.3~1.8 "Kaiyuan Happy" Copper: High SHFE and COMEX inventories continued to rise, the main contract moved to March, the price has weakened; each month's ring position The volume has not changed much, and it is still at a high level. The long-term direction of the market is still uncertain. The weekly magazine still maintains ambiguous judgments on the market outlook. Market evaluation: Neutral weakness, less operation. The following is the chart showing the changes in the three major stock exchanges in 2004 provided by Reuters, showing that stocks have bottomed out. Aluminum: oscillations weakened LME aluminum is strong but SHFE is debatable. Chinalco's control of resources has made it difficult for the market to fall. However, domestic companies are faced with significant growth in new production capacity, export taxation and other factors are equally important. The specific measures are another important factor that makes the market difficult to assess; pay attention to the impact of a large number of recent exports that may turn into implicit stocks. Solar Market Evaluation: Neutral Weak, Less Operating. (Yu Guizhen) Jinrui Futures: Shanghai Copper's full range of low limit 2005-01-05 17:15:59 London copper prices last night under the pressure of the fund's long open positions, the price of copper fell below 3,000 US dollars, down 239 US dollars. The sharp drop in the price of London Copper was mainly due to the sharp rise in the exchange rate of the US dollar. Shanghai Copper was negatively affected by the negative factors of the appreciation of the domestic renminbi yesterday, and fell sharply in intraday trading. This to some extent destabilized the bullish sentiment of Lunbron Copper, which caused the copper to close at $2911. Today, all the Shanghai copper contracts were sealed at the stop price, and there were very few deals. However, today's spot premium still remains around 900 yuan. Obviously, the spot price support for futures prices has not completely subsided. Technically, it is expected that London Copper will be supported on the 2850 line. Domestic futures should be cautious in the event of a tight spot supply. From an outside experience, after the Chinese New Year in February, the increase in demand for copper in China is very fast and may lead to another peak. In particular, spot dealers who have been “forbearing†for a long time may choose to buy in the low position. This is the trigger for the next wave of copper price rises. Even the seemingly tight supply will still drive a large number of Chinese consumers to buy copper. Therefore, in the short term, there is a very high probability that the bottom 2860-2750 will continue to rise after the fall. Short-term wait and see. (Sun Di) Tonglian Futures: Funds' long liquidation position has been confirmed 2005-01-07 8:36:48 The day before yesterday, the total number of LME positions increased significantly. This interpretation is somewhat puzzling, and the large amount of positions held after the transaction yesterday The drop of nearly 5,000 hands basically shows the size of the fund's long exit, plus COMEX's copper positions have fallen by nearly 10,000 lots in the day of the sharply falling deal. Funds that surfaced in both markets were driven by the strong rebound in the US dollar. The large-scale long liquidation triggered has basically reflected the impulse brought about by the collapse of prices. In particular, yesterday's heavy volume trading in the low-lying region has apparently further completed the hedging process of a commercial short position and a fund long position. On today's transaction again, there is a significant increase in volume, and it is expected that the total positions in the LME and COMEX markets will still have a significant decline. At this point, the author believes that the fund will be closed by long positions (it can only be a long open position and it is impossible to establish a large amount of new space). The lethality of copper prices has basically been digested. Today, the price of copper has remarkably increased, but today it is strongly supported by the 2940-50 line. While the USD continues to be in a rally today, we still saw that when the price of copper fell to a correspondingly low level, the negative impact of the exchange rate on it has basically been released. Of course, there is still some consolidation work demand before the copper price rebounds again, so I remain optimistic that this week's Yinxian will leave a longer lower shadow. Commercial short covering is the key to the current support for copper prices. The three-month increase in spot prices has clearly increased to more than US$140 today, indicating that the technical short-term pressure on the short-term positions in the next week’s trading is still very clear. And this pressure may further increase, so the short-term copper price is no longer possible to continue to decline in the form of plunge, I believe that in the coming week at least we can not see the space below 2900 US dollars. Maybe the US dollar still has some room for rebound in the short term, but the nature of copper prices shows that when it falls to a certain position and rises to a certain position, the impact of the exchange rate will be significantly weakened. Of course, if copper prices have not shown disappointment for creating new highs in the future, they will need corresponding consolidation after the current slump. The excessive upward turmoil in Asian trading hours today is not a good thing for the healthy adjustment of prices. Therefore, after the 2940 has become a strong support for the current copper price, tomorrow if the weekly line can close at around 3,000, it can only indicate that the basic trading situation of copper is still in a strong position. The main basis for such a strong position is that there is no strong follow-through short-selling at the current low level. Besides the long liquidation of the fund, who will also throw copper? It is expected that the copper stocks will not be subject to a real reversal of the downward trend in the short term. The popularity in the domestic market is quite good, and China will experience a peak demand from the end of the first quarter this year. Therefore, compared with the LME copper price, Shanghai copper is still a strong support factor after the collapse, and closer to China’s speculators are The short-selling aspect is still quite rational. Therefore, under the circumstances that the medium-term trend of the copper market remains clearly flat, the current sharp decline in copper prices should still be regarded as part of the wide-range range shock over the past 10 months. Potential technical evidence suggests that the possibility of a renewed upward trend in copper prices has still not been ruled out, although the end of the long-term trend suggests that copper prices will have a downward break through the end of the previous quarter or the second quarter this year. We should think of the current shock as a kind of shock-seeking or at most a shocking process. The recent copper price will continue to be in shock consolidation. The current resistance is at 3000/05, followed by 3040/45. The price's corrective rebound may still be very severe. Close support has been proven at 2875/80. Only the 2850/55 key support level has been decisively broken in the short term. This may trigger deeper and more serious declines, making the 2650 testable.