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EnergyTrend research manager Qi Jiazheng said that in 2014, the supply side is still a year of continuous adjustment. As the consolidation continues, the situation of the first-tier manufacturers mastering the seaport is more obvious, and the influence on the spot market continues to deepen. Therefore, the moderate growth of the solar market in 2014 will drive up the price of polysilicon, but China may cancel the European licensing regulations. It is estimated that the polysilicon price of US$20/kg in 2014 will be the level of the ex-factory price.
Jia Jiazheng further analyzed that if the average price of polysilicon is US$20/kg, the cost of silicon wafers will come to US$1/piece~US$1.1/piece, and the cost of the battery will come to US$0.38/watt~US$0.39/watt, and the component cost will be Will fall at US$0.57/watt~US$0.66/watt. Although the wafer manufacturers in the fourth quarter successfully raised the price, but did not reach the balance of profit and loss, in 2014, the relevant industry will be the primary goal of loss, EnergyTrend believes that the price of US$1/piece will be the focus of the silicon and battery industry.
In terms of batteries, the current average selling price has already caused the operators to turn losses. In 2014, the major players can still maintain profitability. In the component part, since the product price is greatly affected by individual markets, the profitability of the company will vary depending on the composition of the company's customers. It is estimated that the market price in the first quarter of 2014 may fluctuate briefly, and it is expected to rebound in the second quarter. . In general, due to the moderate growth in market demand in 2014, EnergyTrend believes that relevant players can maintain profitability.
In addition to the market price is expected to maintain growth, what is worth noting in supply and demand is the supply and demand situation of the single crystal market. EnergyTrend pointed out in the 2014 outlook report that as subsidies were substantially cut, the development of large power plants was tested, which in turn affected the demand for standards. On the other hand, optimistic about the future growth of the self-use market, the monocrystalline silicon wafers began to expand production capacity in the second half of 2013, and successively completed the relevant plans in the fourth quarter. EnergyTrend surveyed the main battery industry's forecast for next year's shipments, the ratio of single crystal products is expected to exceed 20%, and the demand for monocrystalline silicon wafers is between 9GW and 13GW. Although the price of monocrystalline silicon wafers has fallen recently, EnergyTrend believes that the short-term impact caused by the time difference between demand and supply. If the demand in 2014 is observed at 9GW~13GW, it is estimated that the supply and demand of monocrystalline silicon wafers is balanced. In a slightly tight situation, the price is expected to stop falling.
Back to the spot market this week, the average price of polysilicon in the Chinese market has approached RMB$140/kg. Coupled with the strong toughness of the transaction price, the price has continued to rise this week, and the price has reached US$17.515/kg, an increase of 0.82%. In the case of polysilicon wafers, the first-line operators have already raised the price of related products, and the industry has received good orders. The industry continues to raise the price, which keeps the price of the spot market rising. The average price has reached US$0.915/piece, an increase of 0.11%. In the case of monocrystalline silicon wafers, the weakening of demand continued. The average price continued to fall to US$1.159/piece this week, a decrease of 0.09%. In the battery and component parts, the capacity utilization rate of the first-line operators is still good, and the market conditions have not changed significantly. The price remained flat this week.
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Polysilicon is about to start 20 US dollars / kg attack and defense
Abstract Recently, EnergyTrend, a new energy business unit of TrendForce, a global market research organization, observed that the market is generally optimistic about the demand for solar energy in 2014, but with the substantial reduction of subsidies, the development of large power stations has been...
Recently, EnergyTrend, a new energy business unit of TrendForce, a global market research organization, observed that the market is generally optimistic about the demand for solar energy in 2014. However, with the substantial reduction of subsidies, the development of large-scale power plants has been tested, and whether the small-scale self-use market can Filling the gap in a short period of time has become the key to the continued growth of the market.