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PV market bottomed out, polysilicon export orders rebounded
The plunge in the PV market in the second quarter has caused the entire industry to sweat. Since entering July, the market has gradually released the signal of bottoming out, orders have rebounded, and prices of polysilicon and PV modules have stabilized and rebounded on a small scale. The recovery of the photovoltaic industry has also driven the increase in polysilicon imports this month. China Customs released the July 2011 polysilicon import and export figures: the import of polysilicon 5,191 tons in the month, an increase of 41%, an increase of 10.62%, the cumulative imports of polysilicon in the first half of the year reached 35,581.237 tons. In addition, in July 2011, China exported 115 tons of polysilicon and accumulated 796 tons of polysilicon. From the perspective of total import and export, China's polysilicon import and export ratio is still in a serious imbalance stage, and domestic production levels are still unable to meet its own needs. This month's polysilicon import data shows that South Korea, the United States, and Germany are still the three major sources of China's polysilicon imports, with imports of 2,054, 1,320, and 720 tons this month. In June, South Korea's polysilicon imports surpassed the United States and Germany at a rapid rate. Industry insiders speculated that the order of South Korea's Chinese importing countries would be rearranged, and this month South Korea still took the first position with absolute advantage. The development of the Korean solar photovoltaic industry is very rapid and needs further observation. With the recovery of the global economy, PV demand has increased significantly. As the core raw material of the photovoltaic industry, the demand for polysilicon is also rising. The downturn in the PV market in the second quarter was mainly attributable to the vacillation of national government policies, and most companies took a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in a surge in market inventories. After a period of market regulation and the attitude of national support, the PV market has gradually improved, domestic companies have joined the production, and the expansion of the PV market will increase the demand for polysilicon. According to the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", China's solar power generation capacity will reach 10 million kilowatts by 2015. Therefore, the large-scale start-up of the domestic PV market is expected to be clear. Insiders pointed out that the launch of domestic PV demand is based on the government's clear fixed on-grid tariff mechanism. Therefore, the launch of the unified benchmark electricity price for photovoltaic Internet in early August is equivalent to breaking the bottleneck of the development of the photovoltaic industry. The multiple benefits of the market will certainly increase the demand for polysilicon. Secondly, the third quarter is the traditional peak season for the photovoltaic industry. In the first half of the year, demand is almost stagnant. The third quarter starts are expected to exceed industry expectations. In addition, Germany cancelled the installation subsidy reduction policy on July 1. The activation of the photovoltaic market has also enabled more industry insiders and companies to express their optimism about the future solar photovoltaic industry and join the production. Furthermore, China's recently released "Plastic Industry Access Conditions" has imposed strict access regulations on new and renovated polysilicon projects. Strict regulations are bound to keep a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises out of the door. As 80% of the companies in the industry are squeezed out of the market due to non-compliance, this will cause the growth of polysilicon production capacity to lag behind market demand for some time. The polysilicon capacity gap may exist for a long time. When domestic production capacity does not meet the needs, relying on imports will be the only option.