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Behind this kind of shovel, about 80% of China's shale gas resources have been controlled by two barrels of oil. Other companies can only smash their heads to drill inferior blocks with poor geological conditions, poor reserves and high risks. Only God knows.
Ice and fire two days
There are only more than 20 days from the end of this year, and there is still no news of the third round of exploration rights for shale gas. At a shale gas professional meeting in the middle of last month, officials of the Ministry of Land and Resources's shale gas development affairs responded directly to Netease's financial inquiry, saying that the third round of bidding may not be possible at the end of this year. The time has not yet been determined.
"The third round of shale gas exploration rights bidding must be put on hold until next year. As for when it is possible to make it temporarily difficult to say," Wang Xiaokun, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, told Netease Finance recently that it is now impossible to know what is the reason. The third round of bidding work.
China's Ministry of Land and Resources has previously organized two rounds of shale gas tendering, of which a total of 16 companies in the second round of tenders have access to 19 blocks. However, subject to exploration and development experience, core technology, development costs and other issues, the progress of exploration of each winning company is still relatively slow.
For example, Beijing Titan Tongyuan Natural Gas Resource Technology Co., Ltd., one of the two private enterprises that won the bid, has not stayed in the stage of finding a partner after winning the Fenggang block in Guizhou. There is basically no news about actual exploration. . Another private enterprise, Huaying Shanxi Energy Investment Co., Ltd., won another block in Fenggang, Guizhou. The company’s parent company, Yongtai Energy Securities Affairs, said in response to Netease’s financial inquiry that the Fenggang block is still in the preliminary preparation stage. It is unpredictable when it is possible to start drilling.
Even though the actual development situation is somewhat bleak, the above-mentioned Ministry of Land and Resources officials have repeatedly publicly expressed their confidence in the completion of the “12th Five-Year Plan†target for domestic shale gas development. Obviously, his enthusiasm is not from the above-mentioned enterprises that obtained the exploration rights through bidding.
In late November, Wu Xinxiong, director of the National Energy Administration, made a special trip to the Fuling Sinopec Shale Gas Demonstration Zone in Chongqing. It is also after this investigation that the National Energy Administration issued a message on the official website of the official website that "the shale gas exploration and development in China has made significant progress".
According to the news, Sinopec Chongqing Fuling National Demonstration Zone shale gas well has achieved a total commercial gas volume of nearly 73 million cubic meters. PetroChina has also realized a total of 70 million cubic meters of commercial gas. The sum of the two adds up to a total of 143 million cubic meters of commercial gas.
“China Petroleum plans to produce 2.5 billion cubic meters in 2015, and Sinopec’s planned production capacity in 2015 is 5 billion cubic meters. Therefore, I am very optimistic about the completion of the “12th Five-Year Plan†production target of 6.5 billion cubic meters, not only can be completed, It is also possible to exceed 10 billion cubic meters." Officials of the above-mentioned Ministry of Land and Resources, who are responsible for shale gas development, have publicly stated.
Eighty percent of resources are monopolized
China has only officially produced shale gas since 2012. By this year, the output has easily exceeded 100 million cubic meters, so the industry has expressed optimism about the goal set by the shale gas “12th Five-Year Planâ€. However, the above-mentioned officials from the Ministry of Land and Resources also pointed out that the current production of shale gas is mainly three state-owned enterprises of PetroChina, Sinopec and Yanchang Petroleum, but the amount of oil extended is relatively small.
"The main problem in the development of shale gas is that the capital investment is too big, and the second is that the pipeline transportation problem is monopolized by PetroChina, which leads most companies to think that the risk is too high and the relative performance is calm," Wang Xiaokun said. Behind these reasons, there is another factor that is receiving more and more attention.
"I think China's current shale gas is facing one of the biggest challenges in terms of mineral rights," said Chen Liming, president of BP China, on a public occasion on November 30. According to the data released by the Ministry of Land and Resources in November 2012, the potential of shale gas recoverable resources in China is 25 trillion cubic meters, of which 77% of the favorable block area and 80% of the resource potential are in the existing oil and gas block.
The existing oil and gas block is mainly monopolized by PetroChina and Sinopec. Therefore, even if the Ministry of Land and Resources is preparing more and more shale gas bidding blocks, it can only avoid these overlapping with two oil barrels. area. “The high-quality blocks are basically in the basin, and the basins have already been registered by PetroChina Sinopec.†An expert from the Ministry of Land and Resources recently told Netease Finance.
“The second block of Fenggang shale gas in Guizhou is the worst block in the bidding. The local geological structure is very complicated. It is too difficult for private enterprises to do it. The Fenggang shale gas block is almost the sameâ€, last December. After the results of the second round of bidding were announced, a person from the Ministry of Land and Resources shook his head against the list of winning bids.
Zhang Kang, deputy director of the Advisory Committee of Sinopec Petroleum Exploration and Development Research Institute, told Netease Finance that the first and second rounds of shale gas are not good blocks, resource reserves and geological conditions are not good, for those Enterprises with weak strength and poor technology are particularly difficult. "It doesn't matter whether there is anything in the ground or not. This is the most important thing. If you have more blocks, there is nothing in the ground who dares to vote," Chen Liming said.
BP has repeatedly called for participation in the process of shale gas development in China, so Chen Liming suggested that China should formulate shale gas exploration and management regulations as soon as possible, and establish and improve the access and exit mechanism for shale gas block development. "It should be the most likely to introduce a competitive mechanism, and open access to shale gas directly to private enterprises and foreign capital."
Regulatory conflict
"The state-owned oil companies that master the shale gas block are now very enthusiastic, but if they are fully developed, they will invest too much money, and they will not be able to do it themselves." The Ministry of Land and Resources experts said to Netease Finance, so the future shale gas It should not be a problem to develop and resolve overlapping blocks, as future oil block reforms are likely to liberalize external investment.
Zhang Dawei, director of the Mineral Resources Reserve Evaluation Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources, predicted last year that according to the 2020 shale gas production target, China needs to produce 20,000 wells, and the investment required in 10 years is 40-600 billion yuan. That is, the average annual investment is 40 billion to 60 billion yuan.
In fact, the Ministry of Land and Resources has been trying to get shale gas resources from traditional oil and gas blocks. In November 2012, the Ministry of Land and Resources issued the Notice on Strengthening the Exploration, Supervision and Management of Shale Gas Resources, and pointed out that for the shale gas in the existing oil block, “the oil company does not explore the mining, Under the premise of not affecting the exploration of oil and natural gas, the shale gas exploration rights will be transferred to other investment entities separately, and the principle of withdrawal of oil companies will be stipulated.
But the question now is whether traditional oil companies are willing to take the initiative to sell shale gas resources in their oil and gas blocks. In the past year since the publication of the above Notice, there has been no progress in related issues. The Ministry of Land and Resources originally strived to establish shale gas as an independent mineral, in order to avoid the situation that resources are all monopolized by oil companies, but this effort seems to be far from expectations.
It is not just the coordination of the interests of traditional oil companies, even if the level of government regulation is not completely consistent. On October 22 this year, the National Energy Administration issued the "Shale Gas Industry Policy," which was interpreted as a big good news. However, some officials from the Ministry of Land and Resources have disagreed with Netease Finance when they talked about this document. They said that the documents were both existing and not new.
Insiders pointed out that there is also a problem between the national government departments for competing for shale gas supervision. For example, the “Shale Gas Industry Policy†issued by the National Energy Administration stipulates that “the national energy authority is responsible for formulating industry standards and specifications for shale gas exploration and development technology†and established a shale gas standardization technical committee for this purpose. However, as the leader of domestic shale gas development, the Ministry of Land and Resources has also stated many times in these years that it will establish a technical system and standard for shale gas exploration and development.
For the bidding for shale gas exploration rights that the Ministry of Land and Resources has been pushing for the past two years, the National Energy Administration basically did not participate. On the contrary, the National Energy Administration put the main energy on the shale gas blocks of PetroChina and Sinopec. Up to now, the National Energy Administration has approved a total of four national-level shale gas development demonstration zones, including the Sinopec Fuling block, PetroChina has two and extended oil.
In addition, the Ministry of Land and Resources has different opinions on the shale gas subsidy policy issued by the Ministry of Finance and the National Energy Administration. The Ministry of Finance and the National Energy Administration introduced a shale gas subsidy policy in November 2012 that subsidizes 0.4 yuan per cubic meter, but many people in the Ministry of Land and Resources have pointed out that if the shale gas is defined according to the above criteria, a large amount of shale gas Companies may not receive financial subsidies.
Shale gas development, ice and fire, double-day resources, monopoly into obstacles
Faced with the exemplary temptation of shale gas in US energy substitution, the Chinese government has proposed to raise shale gas production from zero to 6.5 billion cubic meters by 2015. However, it seems that the completion of the target can only rely on the "two barrels of oil" of PetroChina and Sinopec. Because many local enterprises and private enterprises that have entered through bidding have not produced even one cubic meter of shale gas.