The cost and demand squeeze the PVA

Recently, the volume of the polyvinyl alcohol market has gradually shrunk. After experiencing the stalemate in early September, the market began to contrast sharply with the previous period in late September and was dead. Narrow decline. For the reason, Zhuo Chuang Xiao Bian thinks that the market demand and aggressive raw materials are the main factors that cause the polyvinyl alcohol market to fall into the gloom. Downstream, we will come to a specific analysis of the causes of the two aspects and look forward to the market outlook.

The cost side, the recent raw material vinyl acetate market although the profit margin is tiny. However, the continued downward adjustment of manufacturers' prices has driven the market to panic and fall. The price dropped from 9,500-9,550 yuan/ton in early August to 8,400 yuan/ton in the current period, a decrease of nearly 1,200 yuan/ton. Although there are currently limited sources of marketable supplies, speculators and terminals still do not intend to make up for the inventory, and even the customary pre-holiday stocking boom of previous years has not been seen. A small number of operators also swiftly proceeded in and out of operation, cautiously guarding against the spread of risk aversion. It is difficult to sustain the firm consolidation of the PVA market and increase the downstream bearishness.

On the demand side, in September, it entered a period of high viscosity consumption. In order to achieve the target, new manufacturers represented by Ningxia Land are flexible to operate and take the lead in launching extremely favorable promotion programs. This has increased the sales volume to some extent, but it has also brought about the inevitable "station door" in the later period. Traditional manufacturers also could not hold back the "counterattack" mentality, big price wars, promotional rebate, billing and other non-bailouts gradually introduced, each one showed the most awesome killer, all manufacturers gradually move, eventually the end-user has become the largest Winners. However, we are still cautious, retreat to wait and see, rational "consumption." Demand is still not as bright as it was before.

This year's international financial market can be described as turbulent. The debt crisis in Europe and the United States has spread frequently. Domestically controlled inflation, reduced investment, and monetary contraction have caused large fluctuations in domestic and foreign commodity markets. Recently, major powers have not introduced clear and effective measures to curb economic slowdown or even deterioration. The three major rating agencies have frequently lowered ratings, leading to extremely low market confidence. While domestic leaders repeatedly stated on various occasions that the macro economy is well controlled, the central government is still the primary objective of controlling inflation, and monetary policy is unlikely to loosen substantially in the near term. In the face of macroeconomic weakness and even crisis, the polyethylene The possibility of alcohol prices going out of independent uptrends is minimal.

Through the above analysis, after the stagnation of the previous period, the current domestic polyvinyl alcohol market lacks further kinetic energy. Even if the manufacturer expects to reduce the load, it cannot expect much stability. However, the terminal's pre-holiday stocking behavior is worth looking forward to, which will help the demand for polyvinyl alcohol to pick up and support the rebound in the price of polyvinyl alcohol. Therefore, the market outlook for polyvinyl alcohol is still worrying. It is recommended that the industry maintain short-term thinking and wait for the purchase of lots in batches.