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After more than 30 years, China's population development has undergone a major turning point. The growth of the total population has been significantly weakened, and the degree of aging has continued to deepen.
In November 2013, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee reviewed and approved the “Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Comprehensively Deepening Reform of Some Major Issuesâ€, proposing a basic national policy of adhering to family planning, and launching a policy of implementing a couple whose only child is a child. .
In an interview with a number of experts, many experts believe that the full liberalization of the two children will not lead to a sharp increase in the birth rate and a sharp rebound in the population. At the same time, this policy can only be used to alleviate problems such as aging in society, and it is expected to appear as soon as 2026.
Focus 1
Will the birth rate increase significantly?
Will not cause a sharp increase in birth rate; the birth peak may appear in 2017
Liang Jianzhang, a population expert and founder of Ctrip.com, told reporters that due to the accumulation effect, the number of births will rebound in the first few years after full-scale birth, but the scope is limited.
He believes that according to the most lenient estimates, the number of births at the peak of the rebound is far lower than in the early 1990s.
In China, the policy of “two children alone†has been implemented. Officials have predicted that due to this policy, China will increase by about 2 million people every year. However, Liang Jianzhang once estimated that when the national start-up policy was on average for one year, the number of applications nationwide was only 1.054 million, and the number of new births would be much lower than 1.054 million. And this is far below the official expectations.
For example, Henan, a country with a large population, officially implemented the “two children alone†policy in early June last year. As of May 31 this year, Henan Province accepted a total of 47,000 individual child birth applications and 13,000 births. In Zhejiang, more than 16,000 people were born in 2014, far below the expected 80,000.
Chen Youhua, a professor of sociology at Nanjing University, believes that “two children alone is a good experiment, which proves that the people’s fertility is not high. Therefore, even after the implementation of the full two children, the population growth will never go out of control.â€
Yao Meixiong, a population expert and deputy director of the General Survey Center of the Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics, also believes that the liberalization of the "two children" will not cause a sharp increase in the birth rate and a sharp rebound in the population, because social transformation has a greater restrictive effect on fertility. From the agricultural society into the industrial society, the decline in fertility rate is an inevitable trend.
Liang Jianzhang said that from the actual effect of the "two children alone" policy for more than a year, hundreds of thousands of newborns have been added each year. According to estimates, among women of childbearing age between 20 and 40 years old in China, there may be 50 to 60 million people who meet the policy. Affected by the comprehensive two-child policy, the average number of new children in the future is expected to be around 2.5 million.
Dr. Huang Wenzheng, a demographic expert and Ph.D. in biostatistics at Hopkins University in the United States, said in an interview with the media that the “full two children†brought about 3 to 8 million new people each year, with an estimated median of 5 million. The baby boom may appear in 2017.
Chen Youhua, a professor of sociology at Nanjing University, believes that the new population brought about by policy implementation will not exceed 6 million a year, and the total birth population in China will not exceed 24 million.
There are also experts who propose different data on the number of people affected after the release of “Comprehensive Two Childrenâ€. Earlier, a professor at the Institute of Population and Development of Nankai University said in an interview with the media that there were nearly 100 million couples in the country who met the conditions for re-fertility.
Liang Jianzhang believes that among the women of childbearing age between 20 and 40 years old in China, there may be fifty or sixty million people who meet the policy. Previously, more than 10 million women of childbearing age in the country benefited from the “two children alone†policy.
Liang Jianzhang said that China's fertility rate is already among the lowest in the world. According to China's gender ratio and female survival rate, each couple needs to have at least 2.2 children to maintain the sustainable reproduction of the population. At the same time, from 2014 to 2024, the number of women in the fertile period from 23 to 28 years in China will drop from 73.87 million to 41.16 million.
Focus 2
Can you delay the trend of aging?
Can alleviate population aging and improve labor supply, but will not change the trend
Many scholars have suggested that the biggest challenge of China's demographic change is rapid aging. At the same time, the characteristics of “not getting rich first†are obvious. This will seriously affect the future economic development and the ability of society to innovate.
Recently, Zhang Chewei, director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, listed a set of data in his column: China's population aged 60 and over in 2015 was 222 million, accounting for 16.16% of the total population; 2020 The year was 256 million, accounting for 18.28%; in 2030, it was 372 million, accounting for 26.39%; in 2040, it was 441 million, accounting for 32.11%; in 2050, it was 492 million, accounting for 37.88%.
Zhang Chewei believes that liberalizing the birth of two children will not change the basic population situation, but will help alleviate the aging of the population and improve the supply of labor in the future. Even if the two-child birth is fully liberalized, the ageing of the Chinese population and the decline in the working-age population will not change fundamentally. However, if the adjustment policy can bring about a certain recovery of fertility levels and an increase in the birth population, it will help improve the population structure and promote the long-term balanced development of the population.
Jiang Weiping told the Beijing News reporter that the comprehensive two-children will not bring obvious changes to the population situation in the near future. In the next 10 to 15 years, the impact of this policy will gradually become clear.
Chen Youhua believes that policy adjustments will cause more families to have two children and the number of births will increase. But it can only delay the speed of the aging process and will not change this trend.
Focus 3
How long does it take for the policy to land?
It should be based on the implementation process of the “two children alone†policy.
Jiang Weiping, director of the China Population and Development Research Center under the National Health and Family Planning Commission, told the Beijing News that the full implementation of the policy will have to wait for the local people's congresses to revise the local laws before they finally land.
Jiang Weiping told reporters that the implementation of the policy of fully liberalizing the two children should be based on the implementation process of the “two children alone†policy. He emphasized that there is a process of practicing the law first.
In November 2013, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee decided to launch the “Separate Two Children†policy. In December of that year, the State Council submitted the “Proposal for Adjusting and Perfecting the Fertility Policy†to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. At the end of December, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress passed the “Opinions on Adjusting and Perfecting the Fertility Policy†issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council.
The "Opinions" clarified the implementation plan for the implementation of "two children alone". First, the governments of the provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) formulate implementation plans, and then report to the competent department of the State Council (ie the National Health and Family Planning Commission) for the record. After that, the provincial people's congresses or their standing committees revised local regulations.
Jiang Weiping said that after China officially launched the "two children alone" policy, the plan and birth regulations were revised accordingly. This has led to a time lag in the implementation of local policies. For example, in January 2014, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Jiangxi took the lead in launching the “two children alone†policy. Most provinces were implemented in March-June, and the policies were fully implemented in September.
There are also differences in the handling of “grab-grabbing people†before the policy is put on the ground.
Previously, the media had statistics that 17 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions such as Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Tianjin, and Beijing clearly stipulated that it is illegal to “grab the birth of two separate children†before the policy falls, and still need to impose fines according to regulations. The policies of Anhui Province are relatively flexible. If a single child is born between the period of policy transition, that is, from November 12, 2013 to January 23, 2014, Anhui’s revised family planning regulations, the individual family only needs to reissue the regulations as required. The birth certificate can be.
In response, the National Health and Family Planning Committee said in response to the localities that after the decision of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the Standing Committee of the Provincial People’s Congress made a decision to implement the separate two-child policy or the revision of the local regulations. The two children are based on critical education and are not treated in principle.
Focus 4
Can social resources respond?
Will strengthen the supply of public services such as maternal and child health, kindergartens, etc.
After the comprehensive two-child policy is put in place, can China's existing hospital beds and kindergartens respond?
In an interview with the Beijing News reporter, many experts said that China's current social resources are sufficient to cope with the policy adjustment after the birth situation, without worrying about this issue.
Chen Youhua, a professor of sociology at Nanjing University, said that China had a history of more than 29 million new people. After the full release of the two children, the birth of millions of newborns each year will not lead to hospital stress and school tension. The shortage of kindergartens and the shortage of delivery rooms are the unreasonable allocation of resources. For example, everyone is crowded into a big city.
However, Lu Jiehua, a population expert and professor of sociology at Peking University, said that big cities such as Beishangguang currently have corresponding population control targets, and there are no major problems in the number of birth rooms and beds for children. But the quality medical resources of megacities will become very scarce.
Yesterday, Li Bin, director of the National Health and Planning Commission, said that the next step is to revise and improve relevant laws and regulations, and do a good job of policy convergence. It is necessary to strengthen the supply of public services such as reproductive health, maternal and child health, and nursery kindergartens.
Population experts and State Council Counselor Ma Li also said that nowadays, not only Beishangguang, but also hospitals in all provinces are actively taking measures to undertake the upcoming small birth peaks. Many places are actively preparing for beds and resources.
At the same time, the general fertility will has been reduced due to the rising cost of raising children and changing the concept of birth. In response, many experts called on the government to take various measures to encourage the birth of a second child.
Ma Li believes that because the current fertility willingness in the society is not very strong, the government should formulate an incentive policy. For example, the original nine-year compulsory education can be adjusted to 12 years. The decline in education costs has led to a significant decline in the cost of support, and 12 years of compulsory education has further improved the quality of children, which also determines the productivity of labor and the economic and social development of the country.
â– What policies will be adjusted after the release of the two children?
The comprehensive liberalization of the two-child system is another major adjustment of China’s population and family planning policy. Then the laws such as the “Population and Family Planning Law†related to the population and family planning policy, as well as the “one-vote veto system†and social support payments, will not Will it be adjusted? The Beijing News reporter interviewed relevant experts yesterday.
"Family planning method" does not contradict the comprehensive two children
The current "Population and Family Planning Law" proposes that the state stabilizes the current birth policy, encourages citizens to have late marriage and late childbearing, and advocates that a couple have a child; if they meet the conditions stipulated by laws and regulations, they may request to have a second child.
After the two children have been fully released, does the above law require amendment?
Liang Zhongtang, an expert member of the National Family Planning Commission, said in an interview with the Beijing News that the Population and Family Planning Law emphasizes “promoting a couple to have a childâ€, while the Fifth Plenary Session proposed “a full implementation of a couple. Taking birth of two children, from the perspective of jurisprudence, the two are not contradictory, and there is no urgency to practice the law. However, considering the rigor of the law, the Population and Family Planning Law defines the general principle of the national family planning policy, and it is still necessary to write the “universal second childâ€.
"Countership one vote veto system" will not be cancelled
After the family planning was designated as the basic national policy, Changde City of Hunan Province took the lead in implementing the “one-child veto system†in 1982 and achieved good results. Subsequently, the “family plan one-vote veto system†was implemented nationwide.
After the two children have been fully released, should the "family planning one-vote veto system" be cancelled?
Liang Zhongtang told the Beijing News reporter that although the Fifth Plenary Session proposed "universal second child", it can also emphasize "maintaining the basic national policy of family planning". "That is to say, family planning is still a basic national policy. This has not changed. Change The only thing is to allow a couple to have two children. Under the premise that family planning is a basic national policy, the 'one-vote veto system' will not be cancelled.
After the Third Plenary Session launched the "Separate Two Children" policy, Li Bin, director of the National Health and Family Planning Commission, wrote in the article of Qiushi magazine: China still has to strictly implement the "one-vote veto" system for family planning, "consolidate and strengthen the basic work of family planning, and ensure that Stabilize moderately low fertility levels; earnestly safeguard the seriousness of the family planning policy."
Social support should continue to be levied
In recent years, social support has been the focus of social attention. In November 2014, the State Council publicly solicited opinions on the “Regulations on the Collection of Social Maintenance Fees (Draft for Review)â€, which once again triggered the dispute over the abolition and abolition of social support payments. Some people believe that social support payments have repeatedly caused illegal collection and interception of misappropriated funds. It should be cancelled; others believe that it should be improved through legislation.
After the Fifth Plenary Session of the People's Republic of China proposed "universal second child", social support has once again become the focus of debate.
Liang Zhongtang believes that it is still not appropriate to cancel social support payments. "Family planning is still a basic national policy. Implementing a 'universal second child' is not the same as general liberalization. Therefore, the reproductive rights are still restricted. In this context, for the super-life behavior There must be mandatory penalties to maintain the seriousness of the national policy."
Only one child should still enjoy the reward
Since 1982, China has implemented an incentive policy for single-child families – a monthly child allowance of 5 yuan. After the Third Plenary Session launched the “Separate Two Children†policy, this incentive policy became the focus of doubt.
At the National People's Congress last year, Mo Yan, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and a Nobel laureate in literature, submitted a proposal to raise the cost of one-child children. Later, there were media reports. After more than 30 years, the standard of single child fees in many provinces still stayed at 5 yuan per month. Many young couples never received the one-child fee. Where did the money go?
After the Fifth Plenary Session proposed the “universal second childâ€, the one-child fee once again triggered discussion: Will couples who continue to have one child still enjoy the one-child fee reward?
Liang Zhongtang told the Beijing News reporter that "family planning is a basic national policy. This principle has not changed. As long as the national policy of family planning continues to be implemented, there should be a penalty. The "Population and Family Planning Law" stipulates: The couple who give birth will be rewarded according to the regulations. As long as the family meets the national family planning policy, they should be rewarded. The state allows the birth of a second child, and the family that has a child has not violated the family planning policy, and should continue to enjoy the reward policy in the future."
The effect of the comprehensive release of the two children is expected to be the fastest in 2026.
Abstract In the 1970s, in order to control the excessive population growth and ease the tension between population, economy, society and resources, China began to implement family planning. In September 1982, the 12th National Congress of the Communist Party of China determined the implementation of family planning as a basic national policy, and in November of the same year, it was written as a new repair...
In the 1970s, in order to control the excessive population growth and ease the tension between the population and the economy, society, resources and environment, China began to implement family planning in an all-round way. In September 1982, the 12th National Congress of the Communist Party of China determined the implementation of family planning as a basic national policy, and in November the same year, the newly revised Constitution was written.