The macro-stable stability is still weak and the first quarter economy is "the result is better than expected"

According to data released by the Statistics Bureau on the 16th, the GDP in the first quarter was 657.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, down 4.5 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. In the first quarter, CPI fell by 0.6% year-on-year, and PPI fell by 4.6% year-on-year.
Although GDP growth continues to decline, more and more data show that the Chinese economy is beginning to show signs of stabilization, such as industrial value added, purchasing managers' index (PMI), power generation, real estate trading volume, fixed asset investment, Bank loan growth rate and M2 growth rate, the performance of the stock market, etc.
Li Xiaochao, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, judged the economic situation in the first quarter by using "a positive change, the results are better than expected", but "the foundation of the economy is not yet stable, and the task is still very difficult."
The results are better than expected Tang Jianwei, senior macro analyst of the Bank of Communications Research Department, analyzed that the main reason for the continued slowdown of China's economic growth in the first quarter of 2009 was the sharp decline in foreign trade and the decline in industrial production growth.
However, some economic data indicates the phenomenon of economic stabilization.
Li Xiaochao said that positive changes have become real, first, "two stable." First, the industrial production operation stabilized. In March, the industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.3% year-on-year, 4.5 percentage points faster than that in January and February. This rate was also faster than the growth rate in October, November and December last year. Second, agriculture The development is stable, the area planted with grain has increased for six consecutive years, and meat production has increased by 6% year-on-year.
The second is "two fast." First, the growth of fixed asset investment accelerated. In the first quarter, the fixed asset investment of the whole society increased by 28.8% year-on-year, and this acceleration was a “double acceleration” in urban and rural areas. Second, the actual growth of total retail sales of social consumer goods accelerated, and the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter. The actual growth rate was 15.9% year-on-year, 3.6 percentage points higher than the same period of last year, 1.1 percentage points higher than last year, and there was also a growth in rural consumption faster than urban consumption.
The third "three highs". First, the new loans of financial institutions hit a new high in the single quarter; second, the sales of passenger cars in the country reached a record high. In March, the sales of passenger cars nationwide reached 772,000, an increase of 22.4% year-on-year and a 26.7% increase from the previous month. The third is social confidence. Raising, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index has risen for four consecutive months. More importantly, it has exceeded the dividing point of contraction and expansion. The entrepreneurial confidence index and the national business climate index in the first quarter have all shown signs of improvement.
Fourth, "three reductions." First, the decline in foreign trade exports narrowed. In March, exports fell by 17.1% year-on-year, which was 4 percentage points lower than that in January and February. Second, the fiscal revenue declined. The national fiscal revenue in March fell by 0.3% year-on-year, which was a decrease from January to February. The decrease was 11.1 percentage points. The third was the reduction in power generation. The power generation in March decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, which was 2.4 percentage points lower than that in January and February.
These positive changes have not only shown that the macro-control policies have achieved initial results, but also showed positive changes in the national economy.
The analysis report of CICC also pointed out that the snowstorm in January-February last year caused the retaliatory rebound of the main indicators in March. Under this high base, the indicators in March this year still recorded a year-on-year growth rate, highlighting The strength of the economy.
However, judging the economic situation in the first quarter, Li Xiaochao also said that the foundation of the economy is still not stable and the task is still very arduous.
"From an international perspective, the current international financial crisis is still in the midst of adjustment. The world economy is still in a recession. The economic recession in developed countries has deepened and the economic growth rate in developing countries has slowed down. The international situation we are facing is still very serious. Domestically, China is still facing greater pressure from the economic downturn, and the task of promoting a faster recovery of the economy is still urgent," Li Xiaochao said.
In fact, Tang Jianwei pointed out that although the foundation of domestic macroeconomic stabilization has emerged, the operation of microenterprises has not changed fundamentally. If the operating rate of enterprises is still insufficient, there are few companies that are fully saturated at present, and many enterprises' long-term orders have become short-term orders.
The decline in corporate profits was obvious. In the first two months of this year, the profits of industrial enterprises nationwide increased by -37.3%, which continued to drop by 42 percentage points from the low level growth of 4.98% in September-November last year.
Long-term inflation concerns Because the credit supply in the first quarter is like “disarming wild horses”, the abundant liquidity also worried the market, whether it will trigger a new round of price increases, and whether the credit will quickly turn into “tightening” in the second half of the year.
Li Xiaochao said that at present, the overall price level has risen and is subject to many conditions, but this is also a place that needs to be highly concerned when closely monitoring the macroeconomic situation in the future. As for the adjustment of monetary policy, he said that the central task of macroeconomic regulation and control is to maintain steady and rapid economic growth.
"At least in the first half of this year, the main pressure facing China is deflation. The risk of inflation in 2009 is very small." Tang Jianwei believes.
However, he suggested that because China is still facing deflationary pressures in the short term and there are concerns about inflation in the long run, China's moderately loose monetary policy should focus on flexibility and forward-looking.
"As far as the interest rate policy is concerned, although the current interest rate level continues to fall as China's interest rates continue to fall, the need for interest rate cuts has not been great in the case of recent high loan growth." Tang Jianwei said. Because at the current interest rate level, enterprises have the demand for loans, and banks have the willingness to lend, which is already a better equilibrium. Of course, if the bank credits show a sharp decline in the future before the economic data is not fundamentally improved, the central bank may use interest rate instruments again.
The China Gold Analysis report pointed out that the recent improvement in the macroeconomic situation has reduced the possibility of introducing a new round of stimulus policies. The current government focus may be on implementing the policies that have been introduced in the previous period.
However, CICC expects loan growth to gradually decline in the future, reflecting the seasonal characteristics of high and low loans, and the gradual decline in the number of investment projects that can attract bank lending. But if credit continues to grow strongly in April, monetary policy needs to be fine-tuned to strike a balance between short-term growth and long-term inflation.
On the whole, Tang Jianwei expects that the high growth of credit and investment will give birth to the “inflection point” of China's economic growth, so that the economic growth rate will start to rise in the second quarter and maintain the forecast of annual GDP growth rate of around 8%.
CICC also believes that the growth of GDP in the second and third quarters will rebound significantly, returning to 8% or more in the second half of the year and increasing by 7.6 to 8% for the whole year.

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