The peak season is about to come to rebar

Recently, the domestic and international financial markets have been shrouded in a relatively empty atmosphere. The prices of stocks and commodities are in an oscillating state. Among them, the rebars fluctuate between the communities, showing a resistance, but the breakthrough needs to be coordinated.

From the macroeconomic environment, the European and American economies are plagued by a debt crisis and a slow economic recovery, and the domestic economy is under tremendous pressure under the tightening monetary policy. Although Standard & Poor's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, the strength of the US super-economic powers and the dollar's special reserve currency status will not cause the United States to immediately encounter a real debt crisis. The real problem facing the United States is the slow economic recovery and high unemployment rate. In the absence of a new growth point in the economy, the recovery of the US economy will be much slower. Whether the Fed will launch QE3 will have a huge impact on the economic policies of other countries in the world. In contrast, the debt crisis in Europe is more difficult to resolve. This is determined by the system of unified eurozone currency and different fiscal systems. The debt problem in Europe is becoming long-term and flat, and it is impossible to simply pass one. Two fund aids or central bank purchases have resolved, which means that there will be a big or small crisis in the euro zone in the future. The future world economy will also face the dual effects of monetary stimulus and debt crisis. Commodities are constantly affected by the imbalance of short-term financial markets in the trend of long-term inflation.

After entering the second half of the year, China still regards anti-inflation as the primary macro-control target, but it has begun to relax in its strength. After all, the long-term tightening of monetary policy has already exerted a greater inhibitory effect on the Chinese economy, especially the private economy. Mainly reflected in rising market lending rates and domestically lower PMI. According to the statistics of the Nishimoto Shinkansen, since the end of last year, the discount rate of large-scale commercial acceptance bills in Shanghai has been rising. Since June this year, there has been a rapid increase, indicating that the liquidity in the market is relatively tight. Since the beginning of the year, the domestic PMI index has been declining, and it has fallen to 50.7 in July, indicating that the economic activities of enterprises are weakening. The domestically tight liquidity environment and the downturn in economic activity have significantly inhibited the prices of bulk commodities, especially industrial products.

Despite the overall tightening of the domestic macro economy, the impact on the construction industry is not particularly large. In the past, the management, the central bank, and the China Banking Regulatory Commission have clearly stated that they should give sufficient support to the construction of affordable housing. At present, the construction of affordable housing has been completed as a political task. According to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the amount of construction in the regions as of the end of July has increased significantly compared with the end of June. From January to July this year, the city's urban affordable housing and shantytown renovation housing has started construction of 7.218 million sets, the operating rate is 72%, according to this progress, the start of 10 million sets of affordable housing during the year is not a problem. Under the support of the construction of affordable housing, there has not been a significant decline in domestic real estate investment this year. With the past season of high-temperature construction in summer, the peak season of “Golden September and Silver 10” is coming, and the consumption of rebar will also increase.

Although iron ore prices have fluctuated this year, they have remained at a relatively high price overall. After the downturn in the first half of the year, coke prices have begun to pick up in the near future. From a cost perspective, the production cost of rebar does not change much, still supporting steel prices. The pressure on steel prices is relatively high in domestic steel production. In July, domestic crude steel output was 59.3 million tons. Although it fell back from 59.93 million tons in June, it remained at a relatively high level overall. There is a certain relationship between the decline and the domestic power cuts. After the weather cools, the output of crude steel will rise again, which is a big pressure for the later steel prices. In terms of inventory, the rate of decline in rebar social stocks in the last two months has slowed significantly.

Since building materials steel has maintained a high gross profit margin this year, steel companies are actively producing rebar, so the supply pressure of rebar is also larger. The slowdown in social inventory slowdown indicates that the recent market supply and demand relationship is relatively loose, which can also Explain why steel prices are not favored by funds, and the upward trend is weak.

From the beginning of the year to the present, steel prices are generally in the range of 4700-4900 yuan to do the box oscillation, down is the steel enterprise cost support, which has been confirmed in several large declines this year, and the need for rebar needs Pulling and the relative easing of the monetary environment. At present, the price of the futures main 1201 contract is at around 4,800 yuan / ton, which is the center of the oscillation range. Investors can open positions at the bottom of the hub, waiting for the demand to pull the steel price higher. If the liquidity can be relaxed during the same period, the steel price will be It is possible to rush 5000 yuan / ton.

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