Since September 8th, in the nearly half month, radiata pine has ushered in a substantial price increase, which has increased by nearly 2,000 yuan/square from the previous month. For this retaliatory rebound, it is worth thinking and summing up for most traders. analyse as below: First, the supply and demand relationship factors: In the existing log inventory is divided into two parts, some of which are 'defective goods', that is, the old ship bulk logs supervised by the issuing company, and the other part is 'live goods', that is, traders are free to sell logs. According to this service number, 'death' accounts for 30% to 50% of the total inventory. Traders should use the 'live goods' as a benchmark when investigating existing inventory. There is no major change in the existing log stocks for a long period of time. The construction site is the main target. Due to the poor real estate situation, the individual sawmills in Shandong and East China have poor start-up conditions. The unloading volume of ships can basically be kept flat, making the overall log stocks change little in a long time. In terms of supply: In July, Matsumoto radiated 95 U.S. dollars. Most traders believe that this is the 'bottom end' of radiata pine. With the conditions for 'bottom-hunting' and massive purchases, stocks are slowly rising, and large quantities of loose radiation can be seen. Expected goods, led to a sustained downturn in August prices. As domestic prices continued to slump in August and the external disk prices were inverted, the exchange rate of the United States dollar rose, which seriously affected the enthusiasm of traders for their orders. From the arrival date at the end of August, it can be clearly seen that the arrival of radiating loose ships has sharply decreased. On the import side, suppliers will not lose weight if they maintain a certain profit. Due to the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar, the decline in international oil prices caused the decline in ocean freight, which led to a gradual reduction in the overall cost of the external disk. Compared to the external disk of US$95, the external disk still has a certain profit margin, so that suppliers will not take the initiative to stop Decrease. Regional mobility: In August, the price of radiata pine in the Changshu region was sufficiently low. The ultra-low-cost cargoes of traders and the opening price of the issuing company attracted users in other regions, such as the rotary cutting factories and finger joints in Linyi and Xiangyang. Board factory and so on. This part of the users was transferred to the Changshu area for purchase, which increased the volume of radiated loose goods in the Changshu area. In terms of digestion: This requires understanding the domestic use of radiata pine. Radiant loosening can be used as a processing mouthpiece. It can also be peeled and processed into building formworks, multilayer boards, and fingerboards. When there was no change in the amount of raw materials needed to be processed, the amount of radium pine in fingering, peeling and other places in Linyi and Xiangyang increased, which increased the volume of radiated loose goods, and mainly focused on new goods. For pine fingerboards, the quality requirements can meet the requirements of Japan and other countries. With the increase in the exchange rate of the US dollar after August 10, the devaluation of the renminbi has promoted the export business, especially the pine fingerboards. This changes from the demand, with the opportunity to increase prices. Second, price incentives: Domestic prices were 'bottomed': Some "ultra-low-cost" goods were thrown in the Changshu area, and some were even sold by the issuing companies. Radiant pine prices fell below the bottom and were attractive enough. For such a price to bottom out, it will seriously spur shipments, and even clear a part of the 'death' inventory, helping to reduce health inventories. Trader's mentality: After the US$95 hunter-deal loss, the US exchange rate rose, the domestic market continued to be sluggish, and the strict control of domestic issuing companies, various factors restricted traders’ purchasing enthusiasm. From the issuing companies in August, it was learned that the number of bulk logs decreased sharply. This means that September and October will form an empty window period. After the traders understood the situation, the first thing they added was 'confidence'. Due to the sharp drop in the number of arrivals, the increase in shipments in the Changshu region made traders feel a little bitter. Through the way that most traders are reluctant to sell, the price of radiata pine is 'sucked up'. Such 'confidence' is like the fuse of explosives, coupled with the imbalance between supply and demand, it caused a retaliatory rebound in the price of radiata pine. Third, the impact of price uncertainty factors? 1. Domestic cash flow: The payment for the processing plant is still subject to the construction company, and the account period between the trader and the processing plant still exists for a long time, and the acceptance bill is not enough; 2. Processing plant (real estate) started: According to my personal visit, the business of medium and small-sized processing plants in Laoshan and Taicang is still bleak and the operating rate is still insufficient. And these small and medium-sized factories are the main force for the digestion of logs. They are just needed. Due to the large base of this part of the processing plant, it can support the daily average digestion, and it can also promote the further flow of funds. Downstream real estate developers are still trapped in international economic policies, and real estate is still in the downturn of the industry. At this time, large-scale processing plants in various regions are still in full swing, and large users are after all a minority, and they do not have industry guidance. Because large customers have always had more orders regardless of the off-season peak season; 3. Whether the digestibility is sustainable: The multipurpose use of radiata pine is the main cause of price increase, but the amount of rotundity of radiata pine has not changed much, and the processing and export of fingerboards and multilayer boards are extremely unstable. Digestion will not continue to become the biggest obstacle to rising prices; 4. Trader's enthusiasm for purchase: Traders have already seen a retaliatory rebound in domestic prices, and the 'gambling' mentality has relapsed. Before losing, they will win. Traders began to make a comeback again. It was like the 'stock market' in the past, and everyone was a bit 'crazy'. In fact, the stock market is very similar to the import and export trader. Both can refer to Buffett's stock quotes: 'I am afraid that everyone is crazy and everyone is afraid of me. ' 5. Supply of suppliers: Radiata pine has risen from US$85 to US$100, which has created a profit margin for suppliers, and suppliers cannot stop because reducing sales will affect many supply rhythms. With the external disk profits generated, the export volume of suppliers will increase. At the same time, it is important to consider that there is no change in the real domestic demand. (For more information on plate, please pay attention to China Plate Trading Network /) Light Steel House,Light Gauge Steel House,Light Steel Homes,Light Steel Frame Houses Shanxi KathayTech Co.,ltd. , https://www.jdsmachine.com