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China's internal and external encounters some new constraints. Innovation is not a icing on the cake. Innovation has brought China's economy to this day. I have said many times that China’s economy has not achieved rapid growth in closure, but has achieved rapid growth for 30 years in the open. What is open? The first is open to developed countries. Because developed countries developed better after the war, capital accumulation, technology accumulation, and knowledge accumulation are abundant. This opening, capital and finance will come. It does not come because it wants to do good deeds because it has economic laws. If an economy has more capital, the return on capital will be relatively low. If capital is in a place where capital is scarce, its rate of return is very high. But if it is not open, capital will not come.
China has a large amount of labor, resources and people who are willing to learn. Combining capital and technology, and having a global market, the Chinese economy has begun to grow at a high rate. Export-led growth is a factor not found in past development models. The average annual growth rate of 10% in 30 years has changed the world.
The global pattern has changed. It can be said that the world is a very rich economy. The rich economy is rich in capital and small in population. A poor economy has a large population and few capital. With less capital, productivity is low. With more capital, productivity is higher. If there is a wall in the middle, such as the Cold War period, then the rich will live a rich life, and the poor will live a poor life. After removing the wall, a series of major changes will occur after the call is made.
If the capital is opened, who will benefit more? Who might suffer? Looking at the rich countries now, the rich countries certainly benefit. Because its original capital has more global workers to use it, the relative scarcity has increased, so Wall Street's big fortune makes sense. Silicon Valley technology has also made a fortune. It turned out that the population of one or two hundred million people used its high technology. China and India were open to the public, and the improvement of people's lives also used its technology. The market has expanded greatly.
A large part of the population in the United States has a relatively low level of benefit in globalization. Especially when compared with Wall Street and Silicon Valley, they have a sense of frustration. This is a problem in developed countries. Before the 1980s, the American Gini coefficient was contracted, the society was an "olive type", and the middle class was growing. Since globalization, the polarization of the United States has increased and domestic contradictions have sharpened.
Let’s take a look at the poor countries, which are the biggest beneficiaries of globalization and increase the opportunities for workers to work. Among the populations of all the backward regions in China, who is close to the capital, who is close to the technology, who is close to the international market, these people are getting richer faster.
From the perspective of globalization as a whole, the speed of economic growth has increased substantially. However, raising it to a certain speed for 30 years, especially in a big country like China, has created new contradictions that make this model difficult to sustain.
Looking at the domestic market, we are mainly relying on cost advantages in the global market, because it is low cost, cheap labor, cheap land, cheap elements, and cheap is competitive. The problem is that the economic law is the cost curve, which rises first and then rises. When the Wenzhou model is only available, the rural labor force in the country is sufficient. However, after the emergence of the Sunan model and the Guangdong model, the development of China's commodity economy and market development are spreading. Everyone is setting up a factory to recruit people, and the reservoir of rural labor is gone. Since about 2000, the cost curve has started to rise. The more rapid rise is taxes, land transfer fees, and government spending.
China has encountered some new constraints both inside and outside.
The top of global competition is still in the hands of developed countries today. In general, it is a "sandwich" structure. The top of global competition is still in the hands of developed countries. Today we still have difficulty in being equal to them. It has the accumulation of knowledge, the accumulation of technology, and the unique advantages that it designs to meet the needs of the world. Sloan School of Business's motto is: Economic competition is two things, either different or cost-leading. These two methods can make it alive.
China is caught in the middle, the cost advantage is not obvious, and the unique advantage is not significant. Where is the way out? Cost savings, economically, everyone's income increases; the reverse is the cost increase. Isn’t economic growth now a matter of raising everyone’s income? However, the higher the income, the higher the cost. When the funds are reinvested in the economic process, the cost is high.
You can't always produce the same thing in the same way. Innovative change is not a icing on the cake. If you are happy, do it. If you are not happy, you will not do it. For China's rapid growth, the economy of the past 30 years, if there is no innovation drive to change the characteristics of cost, it will fall back into a dilemma.
Looking at the difficulties of developed countries today, many old industrial bases in the United States were very brilliant. The steel plates of the first US aircraft carrier were provided here, and today the rust is messy. The solution is to turn the "rust belt" into a head, develop new products, new ideas, and reuse resources through brain power. The United States is also undergoing transformation. Without innovation, all American achievements will eventually become obstacles to development.
What does innovation mean? Without innovation, the economy is likely to become mediocre, and most of the world's economy is mediocre. The so-called mediocrity may increase a bit, and the population will increase, but the per capita increase has not increased significantly. This is called a recurring economy, first introduced by Schumpeter in 1936. Break through this mediocrity, let the economy not be mediocre, then you must innovate, or change products and introduce new products. Or change the quality and function of existing products, or introduce new production methods, or open up new markets. Then develop new materials to form new business models and new economic organization. If these things are not introduced, the economy will definitely be mediocre.
People have ideas, but some ideas have a revolutionary impact on economic growth. In October 2016, the great German scholar Leibniz died for 300 years, and Hanover University carried out many activities to commemorate the scholar. Leibniz said that the work of double counting should not be a work of people, and the machine should be done. All of a sudden let me re-understand all the meaning of the industrial revolution. Machine replacement is not a natural occurrence. It is not that the labor is expensive, and the machine will naturally come out to replace people. Man is the spirit of all things. People want to liberate their minds, constantly have new ideas, and create new productive forces. This is the source of economic growth.
It is very important to know people themselves, and this has a historical process. New discoveries will bring new inventions, new inventions will bring new products, and new ways of using resources will bring economic progress.
Innovation requires high-concentration, high-frequency, high-density interactive ideas to truly become innovative actions, and the transformation of the world is not difficult. Because many ideas will be self-defeating, they can't be polished, and they have no resources to become products.
Under what conditions can ideas be transformed into innovative actions? There is a metaphor that requires a pot of soup. Let's take a look at the global distribution of innovation in several places: Silicon Valley in the US, Boston, and China in Asia. The idea becomes a product and becomes an industry. This road is very long.
We went to Silicon Valley and went to MIT to see that the shape of innovation changed. Universities, national research centers, laboratories, and Department of Defense orders, as well as countless companies, bank capital, venture capital funds, and legal services, are available in many countries around the world. But the difference is in concentration and density, not highly concentrated in a small space, it is difficult to become a climate. A lot of thoughts turned out to be jokes.
From thinking to industry, there are two ways to seriously study and innovate, how to apply ideas, apply new principles, overcome technical difficulties, turn products into industries, and reverse the new challenges brought about by our rapid growth in global competition. ?
Our research found that there are two ways: First, starting from the product. Then go to the key technology, after the technology encounters difficulties, then see if there are new principles to solve. Second, starting from the principle, starting from the new discovery, it is down to see if there is any technology that can help it land, and finally make the product into the market.
Most of the economic activities are climbing from the bottom, there is demand, there is a pain point, everyone wants to solve but can not solve. There are two options here:
The first is to climb up and add icing on the cake. Good and good, excellent and excellent. The craftsmanship of those luxury goods is refined, and once the conditions are ripe, it can become something that the public can enjoy.
The second is to produce products and services accessible to the public, such as Geely Razor, Ford Mode and Made in China.
China has a great opportunity to grow from a bargaining price to a quality of competition.
Innovation really landed, and it is necessary to have comprehensive social knowledge innovation not only by technology, but also to have comprehensive social knowledge and to understand law, people, preferences, public opinion, and politics. Even if a genius technician puts forward an idea that is technically feasible, it does not mean that it is socially and economically feasible.
Innovation is the first three punches, the next three punches, the left three roads, and the right three roads. It is never easy to get through. This year's newly released global innovation index rankings ranked 22nd in mainland China and 16th in Hong Kong, China. There is a new ranking method this year. Innovation is not based on the state but on the cluster. Among the top 100 innovation clusters in the world, the most dense clusters are Tokyo and Yokohama, followed by China's Shenzhen and Hong Kong, and the third is the San Jose-San Francisco (Silicon Valley) cluster in the United States.
Innovation is important, and economic development is ultimately driven by innovation. It cannot be because economists say it is important, the government says it is important, and innovation happens automatically. If innovation can happen, the economy will get stuck.
From a behavioral point of view, innovation comes from ideas, but it is not an idea, and finally it must be action. It must truly change people's lives and use new resources to organize to meet economic requirements. It consists of ideas, ideas, and guesses, including discovering principles, finding applications, inventing technology, trial and error, making products, forming industries, and then accepting and popularizing them.
The organization that undertakes innovation is neither an entire country nor a large organization, but a cluster. It is those who have ideas and are willing to take on innovation to get together at a high density. Nowadays, the organization methods within the advanced companies have changed a lot, and there is an atmosphere of support, affirmation and encouragement of innovation.
The 1.3 billion people in China have a lot of ideas. How is the problem gathered? How to condense? How to increase the thickness? We also have huge demand for universities, research institutes, and national defense, and we have a huge consumer market support of 5 trillion US dollars. These conditions are not lacking, so many innovative companies, generations of new college students, graduate students invested in the economy, in order to promote the long-term growth of China's economy. (Author: Professor Zhou Qi Ren National Development Research Institute of Peking University)
Zhou Qiren: What is the global competition like “sandwich†and China in the middle?
Abstract The new economy, the "new", will not come from the sky, it is created. "Innovation" in Chinese has the meaning of action. China's "innovation" has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people...
The "new" of the new economy, it will not come from the sky, it is created. "Innovation" in Chinese has the meaning of action. China's "innovation" has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, but we also need our real industry, industry, and investment community to truly take innovation as one thing!