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Li Jingming, deputy secretary-general of China Machine Tool Industry Association, said that the downstream industries of China's machine tool industry include aviation, aerospace, shipbuilding, electric power, energy, automobiles, rail transit, high-speed railway, national defense and military industry during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period. Even for a longer period of time, large-scale and deep-level structural adjustments will be carried out, which will bring huge business opportunities to the machine tool industry.
Automotive Industry Automotive (including parts) industry has always been the largest user industry for machine tools. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the average annual growth rate of automobile production and sales exceeded 20%. In 2010, the number of cars produced and sold reached 18.26 million and 18.061 million, an increase of 32.44% and 32.37% respectively over the previous year. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, due to the constraints of energy, environment and transportation factors and the high base deceleration effect, the growth rate of automobile production and sales will be slower than during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period. However, from the per capita car ownership in China (the number of Chinese car ownership in 2010 is 48, the world average is 140) and the per capita GDP growth, the Chinese auto market, especially the second and third-tier markets and the rural market are still There is a large room for development.
It is reported that in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†of the automobile industry, the annual production of automobiles in 2015 is planned to be 25 million units. Dong Yang, head of the Automobile Industry Association, predicts 30 million units, and the total capacity of major automobile companies in 2015 is more than 30 million units. This undoubtedly provides a big market for machine tools. Therefore, 2011 is the first time to stimulate the delisting of automobile consumption policies (the small-displacement passenger car purchase tax concessions were cancelled at the beginning of the year), and the increase in the number of small passenger cars in some large cities will inevitably affect the people's car buying psychology. Therefore, it is estimated that the automobile market will cool down this year, but it is still possible to maintain a growth rate of not less than 10%.
The machine tools required by the automotive industry should first be efficient and highly reliable, but also have sufficient precision and precision stability, but also have moderate flexibility, so not only need a large number of general-purpose CNC machine tools, but also a lot of CNC and Non-CNC dedicated machine tools (such as combination machine tools, etc.).
Rail transit industry China's railway construction and transformation with emphasis on high speed and speed and heavy load has entered the "fast lane" of development. In the five years from 2010, a large-scale investment of about 700 billion yuan will be maintained every year, which will bring huge business opportunities to the machine tool industry. At the same time, by 2015, China will build 79 urban rail transit lines in 22 cities with a total investment of 882 billion yuan, which also provides a market for machine tool products.
The demand for machine tools in the rail transit industry is multifaceted. One is locomotives (electric locomotives and electric drive diesel locomotives) and vehicle manufacturing. The second is the routine maintenance of the wheel and axle manufacturing machines, as well as rail processing and high-speed rail sleeper processing. These above-mentioned processing and manufacturing are in urgent need of general-purpose CNC gold-cutting machine tools, such as machining centers and CNC vertical vehicles. Special CNC cutting machines are also needed, such as track plate grinders and axle grinders. There is also a need for forming machines such as presses and bending machines. Obviously, the rail transit industry has become a very important emerging customer base in the Chinese machine tool market today.
Shipbuilding industry China's shipbuilding industry production situation in 2010 is relatively good (from January to November, the national shipbuilding completion volume of 56.76 million DWT, an increase of 55.4%; the new ship order volume of 63.98 million DWT, 2.8 times that of the same period last year), and At present, China's hand-held ship orders are still sufficient (as of the end of November last year, it was 1.9936 million DWT), so the production situation of China's shipbuilding industry will still be better in 2011. However, the recovery of the international shipbuilding market is weak, the ship price decline trend is obvious, and the structure of China's ship production capacity is unbalanced (low-end ordinary ship type overcapacity, high-end capacity is insufficient). In the context of increased pressure on RMB appreciation, China Ships in 2011 The operational risks facing the industry cannot be ignored.
As an important customer of machine tools, the ship supporting equipment (low- and low-speed diesel engines, crankshafts, propellers, deck machinery, etc.) has made great progress during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, and many projects have been built and expanded. However, the funds for these projects have been basically in place, and the ordering of heavy-duty (including super-heavy) machine tools for key processing equipment has been basically completed. Obviously, the order of heavy-duty machine tools will be significantly reduced in the ship supporting equipment industry in 2011, and there will still be new demand for other types of machine tools.
Wind power and nuclear power equipment manufacturing New energy has become the top priority of China's energy strategy. This paper focuses on wind power and nuclear power equipment that are closely related to machine tools.
Wind power has developed rapidly. In the six years from 2004 to 2009, the annual growth rate of wind power installed capacity exceeded 100%. It is estimated that the installed capacity will reach 35 million kilowatts by the end of 2010 and 100 million kilowatts by 2020. Now megawatt wind turbines in China have been mass-produced, with a maximum of 3MW.
However, China's wind power equipment manufacturing industry is still in its infancy, except for a few strong companies, most of which only assemble the whole machine through technology transfer. On the one hand, there is a low-end overcapacity, and the entire industry needs to improve its technical capabilities and equipment level. Naturally, it needs to purchase advanced machine tools, especially large-scale CNC general-purpose and special-purpose machine tools.
Nuclear power is a clean energy source that countries are competing to develop. In 2010, China's nuclear power installed capacity was 10.8 million kilowatts, and 23 nuclear power units were under construction, accounting for 40% of the world's units under construction. Originally planned to achieve 40 million kilowatts of nuclear power installed in China in 2020, but in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and consider the reality, the upcoming medium- and long-term nuclear power planning is expected to adjust this indicator to more than 70 million kilowatts. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, it will become the peak period of China's nuclear power construction. The annual investment in nuclear power construction will exceed 70 billion yuan, and nuclear power equipment will account for about 5% to 6% of the total investment in nuclear power projects. Therefore, nuclear power equipment manufacturers will also have demand for high-end CNC machine tools.
Aviation Manufacturing China's aviation industry is on the rise. In addition to the military aircraft series, the C919 large passenger aircraft has signed 100 start-up orders and achieved its first flight in 2014. The ARJ21 new regional passenger aircraft in the test flight forensics stage has accumulated 340 orders, and the development capabilities of other helicopters and general aircraft have also been significantly enhanced.
In the aerospace industry, China is accelerating the upgrading of satellite technology and product replacement and the development of large-thrust rockets. Manned space flight, lunar exploration project and Beidou navigation system have achieved significant phase results.
In 2011, the aerospace industry will have new demands for CNC machine tools, especially high-speed, high-efficiency, high-precision, multi-axis, high-end CNC machine tools, which may include automatic tape laying machines and automatic wire laying machines for manufacturing composite components. .
Machinery Industry The machinery industry mentioned here refers to the 12 major industries (in which the automotive industry has been studied separately), which are the basic user industries of machine tools.
In 2010, China's machinery industry has a good production and operation environment. The annual sales value exceeded 13 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 30% over the previous year. The increase in import and export volume was also 30%, and the increase in profits may exceed 45%. In 2011, the production and sales of the machinery industry will maintain a good growth momentum. Although the growth rate will fall back, it is expected to be above 15%. The increase in fixed asset investment will also be higher than the national level, and a considerable part of the investment is in the purchase of production equipment such as machine tools.
In general, large and medium-sized enterprises and some foreign-invested enterprises will focus on high-end CNC machine tools, while small and medium-sized enterprises, especially private small and medium-sized enterprises, mostly purchase medium and low-end CNC machine tools. For ordinary machine tools and non-CNC special and specialized machine tools, there are also No small demand. In the future, low-end and mid-range machine tools will also account for a large proportion.
Analysis of the trend of the machine tool market in 2011
As a classification of the equipment manufacturing industry, the development of the machine tool industry, especially CNC machine tools, will be strongly supported by downstream demand. According to the special plan of “high-grade CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipmentâ€, by 2020, about 80% of high-end CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment required for aerospace, shipbuilding, automobile and power generation equipment manufacturing will be based on domestic and future development of China's machine tool industry. Very broad.