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Machinery industry: deterministic undervaluation under uncertainty
The industry is not sad or dissatisfied, and the policy in the second half of the year is expected to shift. We are optimistic about the construction machinery and agricultural machinery that benefit from urbanization and labor substitution, especially the beneficiary companies that protect housing construction; the bidding will be started in the second half of the year after the adjustment of the railway operation map, and the demand for rail transit equipment will continue to grow steadily; the energy equipment and service industry will benefit from Energy structure adjustment and reform, focusing on the construction of the LNG industrial chain. The sales of construction machinery entering the rainy season were relatively flat. In May, excavator sales decreased by 12% year-on-year, loaders were basically flat year-on-year, bulldozer sales decreased by 34% year-on-year, forklift sales increased by 38.8% year-on-year, and truck cranes decreased by 10% year-on-year. Concrete machinery performed best! In May, bulldozers and loaders exported faster, with bulldozer exports up by 103%. The growth rate of foreign construction machinery sales has been slightly adjusted, and EU demand has recovered. South Korea's sales in April were still at a three-year high, and Japan's sales affected by the earthquake fell. In May, the CAT dealer index showed a slight decline after four consecutive months of growth, but the year-on-year growth was still 52%. The EAME regional index was the strongest, with a growth rate of 65%. The Asian region was the weakest, down 27 percentage points from the previous month. 38%. The growth rate of fixed assets investment in coal mining and washing industry has increased month by month. In the first half of the year, the NDRC suspended the examination and approval of exploration rights and strictly controlled the impact of the approval of new coal mines. The growth rate of coal fixed investment decreased significantly compared with the previous year. However, with the integration of some coal mines coming to an end, the transformation and expansion will drive a new round of investment demand. The global oil rig activities tend to be active, and the daily rental rate of drilling platforms has risen steadily. The domestic machine tool industry has a high level of prosperity, which is related to the long lag of the order cycle. Sales in May reached a new high, with a total of 88,000 metal cutting machines, up 41.4% year-on-year. US machine orders in April remained high. In April, the total number of orders for machine tools in the United States was 397,000 units, down 21% from the previous month, but the year-on-year growth rate still reached 74.9%. The number of orders remained at a high level, close to the pre-crisis level, indicating that the US machine tool industry is on a good trend. In May, China's railway fixed asset investment fell by 18.4% year-on-year, and the construction of high-speed rail was unusually slow. According to the investment scale of the Ministry of Railways this year, the railway construction project is expected to increase significantly in the second half of the year.