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Tax rebate cancelled and imposed export tax on the harsh winter time of electrolytic aluminum industry
The coming will come eventually. After the controversy lasting for nearly a year, the export tax rebate for electrolytic aluminum was finally cancelled. On December 28, 2004, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the "Circular on Cancellation of Export Tax Refunds for Electrolytic Aluminum and Ferroalloys, etc." Since January 1, 2005, the cancellation of non-wrought non-wrought steels with a tax code of Aluminum alloy (commonly known in the industry as "electrolytic aluminum") 8% of the export tax rebate. From January 1, 2004, when the export tax rebate for electrolytic aluminum fell from 15% to 8%, the controversy over whether or not to completely cancel the electrolytic aluminum export tax rebate has not stopped. Maybe it was because the argument lasted so long that when the news was finally released, the reaction in the industry was surprisingly unpredictable. Dong Qingying, head of the Sanmenxia Tianyuan Aluminum Company, said that he was calm when he heard the news. "I expected it early," he said. However, the more brutal may still be behind. An official from the Office of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council stated that it is currently considering the introduction of a 5% export tax on aluminum. Dong Chunming, deputy general manager of the industry Yan Dong An Tai Ke Information Development Co., Ltd., said: “From the macro industry planning to the interest structure of the upstream and downstream, from the central policy to the local development impulse, the problem of electrolytic aluminum is a problem in the process of China’s economic development. A microcosm of it.†And industry insiders now have more understanding of the country’s related policies. Dai Songling, Chairman of Longgang Aluminum Co., Ltd. of Henan, said: “The low level of duplicate construction of electrolytic aluminum, which is separated from actual blind development, will inevitably cause disorder in the market and excessive competition, and trigger new financial risks. This time, the central government adopted macro regulation and control in a timely manner. It is considered necessary and timely." But he still fears that the export tax rebate will bring more pressure on the company. “Yulong Longquan has experienced serious losses since May 2004,†according to Dai. In fact, the loss of Hong Kong and even more than a Longquan. Since the middle period of 2003, domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises have long suffered large losses. According to the information from the Nonferrous Metals Association, so far this year, so far, domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises have closed down 24 self-baked tank companies, 39 companies have suffered losses, 31 companies are on the verge of losses, and the rest have profited It is also a substantial drop. Do a simple arithmetic: If the unit price of alumina is calculated according to the then 4300 yuan/ton, the electricity cost is 0.35 yuan per kilowatt-hour, then the production cost of electrolytic aluminum is basically around 16300 yuan/ton, and the price of aluminum ingot at that time was only 15600 yuan. Yuan/ton. Even if some of the companies have the advantage of aluminum and aluminum joint ventures, they can control the price of electricity at 0.28 yuan -0.30 yuan, just to keep it from losing money. Li Judong, executive deputy general manager of Shangdong Aluminum Group, said with emotion: “Now, electrolytic aluminum has reached a more critical moment!†But Liu Libin, deputy general manager of Henan Nonferrous Metals Corporation, believes that the crisis of electrolytic aluminum industry may be artificially exaggerated because It is a long time to cancel the export tax rebate brewing. During this period of time, it may be only a strategy for companies to “complain†to the competent authorities. Because in the national output of electrolytic aluminum, the export of aluminum ingot only accounted for about 10%, therefore, to cancel the impact of electrolytic aluminum export tax rebate on the company, "not as big as previously thought." The trend of aluminum futures prices also partially confirmed his views. At present, the price of aluminum futures has reached a new high in nine years. The rise in aluminum prices will certainly be able to absorb the impact of some companies canceling export tax rebates. Liu Libin believes that the real impact is those companies that have signed long-term aluminum export contracts. Currently, in the total domestic aluminum exports, the feed processing trade accounts for more than 90% of the total, and the aluminum produced by the feed processing trade method must be exported for verification. As a considerable part of the feed processing is a long-term contract, this locks a portion of the aluminum must be exported, and such enterprises generally pay prepayments for this purpose and issue a full-rate guarantee letter. "In fact, this type of enterprise is earning money for export tax rebates; if it is breached, it will inevitably bring direct economic losses," said Liu. Abnormal survival of the aluminum industry Although the share of aluminum exports in production is not high, some electrolytic aluminum producers still show strong repercussions on the cancellation of export tax rebates, resulting in the allocation of irrational benefits to the entire aluminum industry over a long period of time. The sniping of the structure is also exceptionally strong. Dong Chunming said: "Because the upstream alumina prices are extremely high! This leads to low profitability of the downstream electrolytic aluminum." Dong believes that the domestic aluminum industry is a deformed market, and the deformity manifests itself in the following: The incredible way is higher than the middle and lower reaches." Even at present, the price of aluminum futures has reached a high level in nine years, but researcher Zhou Ming of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute said that the profits of the industry are more concentrated on the upstream raw material industry chain, such as alumina and copper mining companies, and as the middle and lower reaches. The processing industry, electrolytic aluminum, lead-zinc processing, etc., actually benefited less, and its profit growth did not coincide with the increase in product prices. The director of the Industry Consulting Department of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Cao Baokui, said: “Although the economic benefits of the entire aluminum industry are better than last year, the profits and taxes and profits are mainly concentrated in alumina companies. The economic benefits of independent electrolytic aluminum enterprises are declining month by month and the loss is increasing. Taking China Aluminum Corporation, the current domestic alumina producer, as an example, Chalco basically relies entirely on alumina production for profit, and Chalco's 2004 semi-annual report shows that its alumina gross margin is 46%. In contrast, the gross margin of primary aluminum is only 0.08%. The industry criticized the fact that as demand continued to rise, Chinalco announced at the end of October 2004 that alumina prices had been raised to RMB 4330/t. At the end of 2002, it was still less than 1,900 yuan/ton. One person in the industry even said with extreme indifference: "This is a company that wants to marry an industry." However, Liu Libin's idea seems more optimistic. In his opinion, since everyone is now actually working for alumina, if the aluminum plant can't keep closing, then, “If you don’t work, the boss naturally has an urgency. At that time, the alumina The price has also come down." For the alumina industry, the alumina import policy has artificially increased the volatility of the aluminum market in China. In China's primary aluminum exports, over 90% of the exports are processed by processing trade. This is due to the problem of tariffs on existing alumina imports and the automatic registration of imports in general trade, resulting in the majority of domestic enterprises can only take The method of material processing imports alumina, and of the 147 aluminum plants in China, only 8 have qualified for general trade import. According to Chen Jianguo, whether the import of alumina is hampered by normal trade, or if the processing of incoming materials is limited, it will cause damage to the operating activities of production companies. Only in the case of import processing or general trade import barrier-free conditions, companies can normally carry out production to preserve value. The meaning of Chen Jianguo is very clear, aluminum industry policy should enable local large enterprises and state-owned large enterprises to enjoy the same treatment. Do you want to develop electrolytic aluminum? In support of the cancellation of the electrolytic aluminum export tax rebate, a strong argument is: electrolytic aluminum is a high-energy-consuming industry, the production of a ton of electrolytic aluminum requires about 15,000 kWh of electricity, so exports of aluminum equal to the export of energy, in this Under the circumstances, how can the country continue its aluminum export tax rebate policy? A person from the Metallurgical and Nonferrous Industry Division of the Economic Operation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the state’s policy on electrolytic aluminum is very clear. Electrolytic aluminum is a high-energy-consuming industry. There is also an overheated investment. Therefore, canceling export tax rebates is a matter of consolidating macro-control results. . The government imposes export tax on some metal products. On the one hand, most of the metal products are kept in the country to meet the huge internal demand. On the other hand, the domestic metal industry is promoted to integrate some high energy-consuming and polluting enterprises. However, the clear logic complains about the company. Liu Libin analyzed that one of the reasons for complaints from enterprises is the instability of the policy, “because many electrolytic aluminum companies in China are launched under the encouragement policies of the countryâ€. He explained that the electrolytic aluminum industry is an industry with a high degree of industrial correlation. At present, Henan, Shanxi, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai, Guizhou, Guangxi, Ningxia and other provinces and regions have taken the aluminum industry as a pillar industry for regional economic development. Two years ago, there was an oversupply of electricity, many power companies had only 4,500 hours of production time per year, and the capacity utilization rate was only 59% more. The power industry faced great difficulties. Since more than two years ago, the state has encouraged the development of electrolytic aluminum, and has been vigorously rectifying it for more than a year. Now that export tax rebates have been lifted and even export taxes have been imposed, practitioners in the electrolytic aluminum industry are moving from the breeze to the ice. Although this cycle of change lasted for more than two years, all this was too fast for electrolytic aluminum, a project with a huge investment and a long recycling cycle. Liu Libin suggested that the state introduce the industrial development policy of the electrolytic aluminum industry as soon as possible, clarify the objectives, technology, planning, layout, industry access, and trade policies of the industrial development, and ensure the sustainable development of the industry so that the electrolytic aluminum enterprises can be in a relatively long period of time. There are rules to follow and there are moments to observe. But there are also many people who worry that policies may not keep up with changes. Dong Chunming believes: “After 2006, China’s electricity supply situation will be greatly eased. Therefore, limiting the export policy may make the electrolytic aluminum market a relatively closed loop, which is not conducive to the market maintaining adequate liquidity and can not effectively play the market configuration. The role of resources.†The swing back and forth of policies, it is very important that there is no consensus on whether or not to develop electrolytic aluminum industry in China. Should China not develop electrolytic aluminum? Zhang Fengkui, a researcher at the Metallurgical Non-ferrous Metals Division of the Economic Operation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that electricity and alumina are the basic conditions supporting the development of the electrolytic aluminum industry. The current status of China's electricity and bauxite resources does not have the conditions for large-scale development of the electrolytic aluminum industry. However, Cao Baokui believes that China's electrolytic aluminum industry is still an important basic raw material industry in the development of the national economy; it is still an industry that must be developed. Perhaps it was some time ago that the impact of the debate on whether China was to develop heavy industry or whether the “heavy chemical industry era was an insurmountable stage for China†was stressed. Dong Chunming particularly stressed that it is not appropriate for electrolytic aluminum to be put together with steel and cement industries. Huai Aluminum Group Chairman Chen Jianguo and Dong shared the same view. "In the category of commodities, electrolytic aluminum has fundamental differences with steel and cement." He believes that electrolytic aluminum is a commodity that can be traded in international and domestic futures markets. Aluminum prices are determined not only by the supply and demand of the spot market. Electrolytic aluminum products can't be sold, and there will be no product backlog. At the same time, it is also a financial derivative tool that allows companies to obtain cash before product production through futures trading, hedging, warehouse receipts, and letter of credit packaging. However, compared with the long-term industry planning, "Winter has arrived, will spring be far behind?" This may be the more realistic hope of Chen Jianguo and others. (21st Century Business Herald Yao Feng)