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The international economic trend is still full of uncertainty From the perspective of the domestic economic trend, the trend of economic stabilization and recovery has been basically established. This year's economy showed a trend of low and high, and the growth rate was basically one step in the current quarter. At present, many domestic economic indicators have improved, investment and consumption have played a role in stabilizing economic growth, and the negative effect of net exports on growth has weakened. It is expected that GDP will increase by 9.3% in the second half of the year, and the annual growth rate will be around 8.2%.
From the international situation, the worst period of the world economy has passed, but it is still full of complexity and uncertainty. After the German, French, Japanese and other national economies have emerged from the recession in the second quarter, the US economy will see positive growth in the third quarter, but next year there may be a double dip, showing a general W-shaped trend. In the next year or two, the world economy will enter a period of low growth (about 3%), and it will take about three years for global trade to return to its historical peak. The main reasons are: the potential risks of the financial system are still large, and the unemployment rate of major developed economies High, the fiscal situation of the policy tends to deteriorate, and there is no leading industry that drives economic growth.
China's economic development is still in the critical period of economic growth. On the whole, China's economic recovery base is still unstable, unconsolidated and unbalanced. There are still many international and domestic instability and uncertainties. Therefore, China's economic development next year is still growing. The key stage.
Under the conditions of stable macroeconomic policies, the economy is likely to continue to rebound, and it can basically maintain a relatively fast growth momentum. It is expected that the GDP growth range will be 9% next year, and the demand-driven structure will tend to balance. The main reason lies in four aspects. :
Despite the slowness, volatility and uncertainty of the world economic recovery process, the situation that needs to be improved abroad is still unclear, the prospects are still unstable, and the rise of international trade protectionism and market competition are intensifying. Faced with greater external pressure. However, the policy effect of China's promotion of foreign trade will be further revealed. Next year, exports and trade surplus will increase to a certain extent on this year's low base, which will play a positive role in economic growth. It is expected that exports will increase by about 10% next year.
Investment growth may fall back on the basis of this year's rapid growth, but the rebound in exports and manufacturing will drive private investment growth.
Factors such as increased efforts to improve people's livelihood, income from migrant workers, auto demand and the World Expo will drive steady and rapid growth in consumption next year.
There will be no obvious inflation next year. The overall pressure on price increases is not large. It is expected that the CPI will increase by more than 3% next year. The macro-control focus does not have to shift to controlling inflation.
The eight orientations of macroeconomic policy next year First, continue to adhere to the formulation and basic orientation of "positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy" to maintain the continuity and stability of the policy. In the specific operation, we should grasp the strength and rhythm and pay attention to prevent potential risks.
The second is to develop a green economy and promote economic restructuring. Accelerating structural adjustment is the main line of economic work. To adjust the structure to drive economic growth and improve the quality of growth, seize the key, increase efforts, promote the adjustment of domestic demand and external demand, investment and consumption relations, and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and urban and rural areas. Coordinated development.
The third is to focus on improving people's livelihood and developing social undertakings as the focus of expanding domestic demand and ensuring growth. Accelerate the pace of urbanization, promote the integration of urban and rural infrastructure and the equalization of urban and rural public services, and gradually narrow the gap between urban and rural areas.
The fourth is to give full play to the improvement of the external demand pattern to maintain growth and adjust the structure. From this year's "stable external demand" to "grab opportunity", formulate and implement comprehensive foreign trade and economic development strategies for different countries and regions; promote export tax rebate reform, improve support for foreign trade and economic financial system, reform foreign investment system; actively respond to trade Protectionist challenge.
The fifth is to vigorously cultivate new industries, promote the formation of new economic growth points, and provide new impetus for sustained and stable economic development. It is necessary to speed up scientific and technological innovation and institutional innovation, strengthen planning and policy orientation, and create favorable conditions for the development of emerging industries.
The sixth is to speed up the elimination of backward production capacity. China's overcapacity problem has both external and internal causes. Under the situation of expanding domestic demand and maintaining growth, some new contradictions have emerged, which will increase the uncertainty and volatility of economic growth. Comprehensive measures should be taken to increase governance. Strength.
The seventh is to accelerate the development of small and medium enterprises. To further expand domestic demand, adjust the structure, and benefit the people's livelihood, we should increase support for private investment and create a good and relaxed development environment, especially to mobilize the investment and development enthusiasm of SMEs, which account for 99% of the total number of enterprises.
Eighth is to further promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Reform the land purchase and reserve system, revitalize the stock of land, standardize local government land revenue behavior, improve market regulation and control measures, continue to promote the construction of affordable housing, improve real estate credit, taxation and other policies, guide the regulation of developers and buyers, and strengthen market transactions. Supervision.
Green development becomes an inevitable trend National and local enterprises work together to implement a green strategy Green development refers to resource-saving and environment-friendly development. For the enterprise, there are two aspects: first, energy saving, material saving and environmental friendliness in the production process, and second, production of energy-saving and environment-friendly products.
The three major reasons for taking the green development path The first major reason is the need for China's own development.
At present and in the future, China faces two major problems: First, the contradiction between economic development and environmental protection is becoming more and more acute. Second, the contradiction between supply and demand of resources is very prominent. To continue to maintain sustained and rapid economic growth and achieve the long-term strategic goals of the country, we must deal with the relationship between economic development, resource constraints, and environmental protection. To this end, the central government put forward the concept of scientific development concept, and the development of the development concept from fast and good development to good and fast development is to achieve efficient and low-cost economic development, and the safe development of people's lives and safety. The development results benefit the inclusive development of the members of the whole society, the environmentally friendly development that reduces the damage to the ecological environment to a minimum, and the innovative development of increasing economic competitiveness. The state has proposed a series of strategies for this, including saving resources and protecting the environment as basic national policies, building a harmonious society strategy, building a conservation-oriented society strategy, developing a circular economy, and establishing an innovative national strategy. To implement the above strategy, we must take the green development path.
The second major reason is that the international response to climate change requires China to follow a green development path.
At present, reducing carbon dioxide emissions has become a major issue related to global environmental security, and the views of countries around the world on emission reduction issues have become increasingly consistent. China has a large population, fragile ecological environment and frequent natural disasters. In recent years, abnormal climate events related to climate warming have occurred frequently, which has greatly affected people's lives. Therefore, although China, as the largest developing country, cannot afford to develop opportunities because of emission reductions, it must not follow the path of high carbon development.
In addition, promoting economic development as soon as possible into the low-carbon development track is an inevitable choice for China to cope with the pressure of reducing emissions, and is the only way for China's future economic and social development.
The third major reason is that the green development path is also an inevitable choice for enterprises to gain competitive advantage.
Energy conservation and environmental protection are also fundamental measures to reduce raw material consumption, which can significantly reduce costs and significantly improve competitiveness. This is not inconsistent with the company's pursuit of its own interests. At the same time, the production of green products is recognized by the society, which will bring a lot of market space, and the development of enterprises will have broad prospects. With the sustained and rapid development of China's economy, green products fully reflect the trend of changes in consumer consumption structure, which is the direction of market demand development. Therefore, whoever grasps this direction will be able to seize market opportunities.
Four roads to achieve green development First, the state must formulate and implement a green industry development strategy. All industries should formulate green development strategic planning and implementation plans in accordance with the concept of circular economy. Focus on cultivating and supporting the industry's green leading enterprises, encourage industrial accumulation, build green industrial bases with industrial cluster ideas, and form green based on green leading enterprises, international market systems, specialized design companies, and technical specialized production enterprises. Industrial development pattern.
Second, enterprises must formulate and implement green development strategies. Enterprises must formulate green development plans and implementation plans, accelerate the transformation of green technologies, and strive to build green brands and seize the commanding heights of green products production in the same industry. Enterprises should find their own position, take the initiative to move closer to the national well-known green brand enterprises, become a supporting enterprise or production base, and jointly build a national-level green brand aircraft carrier with the idea of ​​industrial clusters.
Third, all localities must formulate and implement green regional development strategies. All localities should formulate green regional development plans and implementation plans in accordance with the concept of circular economy, rationally layout and optimize regional economic structures, so as to realize the closed recycling of resources, energy and materials, and the harmless treatment of wastes, so as to achieve industrial development. Strive to achieve zero emissions of pollution in the park.
Fourth, the government must formulate policies and measures to encourage green development. First, we must establish an incentive and restraint mechanism. Formulate preferential policies such as finance, taxation, finance, investment, price, technology, etc., and encourage industrial enterprises to develop circular economy and produce green products. Among them, the most realistic and feasible is the implementation of green credit and black credit strategy. Second, we must implement a green consumption strategy because green consumption is the internal driving force for green industry development. Third, we must accelerate the establishment of a green national economic accounting system. Fourth, we must accelerate the cultivation of large companies and enterprise groups. Fifth, we must establish a green brand evaluation, optimization and publicity mechanism to form an atmosphere conducive to the development of excellent and strong green brand products and enterprises.
Doing a good job in energy conservation and emission reduction, promoting strategic adjustment of energy structure and building related systems Currently is a good time to promote energy conservation work. We should concentrate our efforts, seize key links, take effective measures, and resolutely fight energy-saving and emission reduction.
The goal of energy conservation and emission reduction is not relaxed. Whether the two binding targets of energy conservation and emission reduction can be achieved is related to the overall situation of sustainable economic and social development. It is of great significance whether the scientific development concept can be implemented. It is necessary to insist that the goal is not relaxed. To strengthen the effectiveness of indicators, we must emphasize the seriousness and coerciveness of binding targets, combine the three major systems of energy conservation and emission reduction statistics, monitoring and assessment, and make rewards and punishments for the completion of indicators, and do not go through the field to decompose the implementation and monitoring objectives. For the purpose of the project, the work of energy conservation and emission reduction will be truly implemented.
At the same time, we must develop the circular economy as an important means of energy conservation and emission reduction. Practice has shown that circular economy is an important way to promote energy-saving emission reduction and promote the transformation of economic growth mode. There are many successful examples in various industries and many places. The implementation of the circular economy development concept should be implemented through the implementation of a series of national green strategies.
Giving full play to the fundamental role of the market mechanism Fundamentally speaking, energy conservation and emission reduction must take the road of marketization. Three tasks should be done: First, give full play to the important role of industry associations. As a self-disciplined organization, all kinds of industry associations at all levels play an irreplaceable role in promoting energy conservation and emission reduction in the country. The second is to accelerate the development of energy-saving intermediary services. Governments at all levels should accelerate the development of various energy conservation and emission reduction technologies and service institutions, vigorously develop energy conservation and emission reduction service companies, and use contract energy management to promote the industrialization of energy conservation and emission reduction. The third is to encourage the exploration and promotion of new mechanisms for energy conservation and emission reduction. Promote energy-efficient power plant mode and energy-saving equipment financing leasing mode, solve problems such as small energy-saving and emission-reduction projects, difficulties in raising funds, and promote the development of power demand side management to form a mutually beneficial win-win situation for energy-using enterprises, intermediary service companies, financial institutions, and equipment manufacturers. Situation.
Solidly Advancing the Six Special Actions To complete the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†energy conservation and emission reduction targets, we must further strengthen the administrative role and organize six special actions for energy conservation and emission reduction:
First, organize and implement special actions to adjust energy conservation and emission reduction. Accelerate the transformation of the economic structure into a direction conducive to energy conservation and emission reduction, focus on the development of modern service industries, vigorously promote the informationization of the national economy, make full use of information technology to transform and optimize traditional industries, and promote industrial upgrading.
The second is to organize and implement special actions for energy efficiency control of new capacity in high energy-consuming industries. For the major high-energy-consuming industries such as steel, chemicals, electric power, and building materials, we will formulate feasible energy efficiency control action plans for new capacity and implement them effectively.
The third is to organize and implement special actions to eliminate existing industrial backward production capacity. Establish and improve the exit mechanism and compensation mechanism for backward production capacity, comprehensively use economic, legal means and necessary administrative means to eliminate small steel, small cement and small thermal power listed in the phase-out plan as soon as possible.
The fourth is to organize and implement special actions for the industrialization of high-tech energy-saving technologies. Guide enterprises to develop new energy-saving new technologies, break through key common technologies, and vigorously support the industrialization development of high-tech energy-saving technologies with better application prospects in the near future, and provide key technical support for energy conservation and emission reduction.
Fifth, the implementation of the ten key energy-saving emission reduction projects nationwide. Implement the supporting support policy as soon as possible, give priority to the implementation of energy-saving projects of government agencies, and focus on implementing building energy-saving projects.
The sixth is to further promote the energy conservation actions of thousands of enterprises. From the aspects of energy consumption monitoring, energy auditing, energy efficiency evaluation, and financial support, we must further promote the energy conservation actions of thousands of enterprises to ensure their successful implementation.
Accelerating the strategic adjustment of energy structure China's energy production structure, supply structure, layout structure, organizational structure and consumption structure are not reasonable, which is an important cause of high energy consumption and high pollution. The implementation of the “three big one special†strategy of large coal power, large hydropower, large nuclear power and UHV transmission is a key way to adjust China's energy structure and an important means to promote energy conservation and emission reduction.
The “Three Great One Special†strategy is to vigorously develop large-scale coal-fired power bases, especially large-scale open-pit coal-fired power bases in the rich coal areas in the north, accelerate the development of large-scale hydropower projects in the western areas such as the Jinsha River, and build large-scale nuclear power in load centers in the eastern coastal areas. At the same time, the UHV transmission method is adopted to realize large-scale west power transmission and north power transmission.
The development of "three big one special", the current work needs to be carried out: research and development of the "three major and one special" development plan; advance the UHV test demonstration project as soon as possible; further clarify the development of nuclear power; accelerate the construction of coal-electricity integration base; improve The macro-control of the energy sector has set aside market space for the “three big onesâ€.
As soon as possible to overcome the key technologies of coal clean power generation The development of green coal-fired power technology to achieve clean utilization of coal is a long-term strategy for energy conservation and emission reduction in China, which is related to the sustainable development of energy and must be accelerated.
Drawing on the experience of the United States, Europe and Japan, the National Green Coal Power Development Leading Group was established to formulate and implement the National Green Coal Power Plan and introduce preferential policies to encourage the development of green coal power technology as soon as possible. It is recommended that the Ministry of Science and Technology incorporate green coal power technology into the national science and technology major special plan, organize scientific and technological research, take the road of independent innovation, improve core competitiveness, and realize the localization of core technology equipment.
Since the construction of the integrated gasification combined cycle power generation system (IGCC) power station is the foundation of green coal power, it should concentrate on accelerating the construction of one or two IGCC demonstration power stations. At the same time, formulate preferential tax policies, use special funds and national debt funds to support enterprises in the development of key technologies for green coal power. In addition, the construction of a national-level green coal-electricity laboratory will accelerate the innovation of green coal-fired power technology, accelerate the transformation of scientific research results into enterprises, and enhance the independent research and development capabilities of green coal-fired power.
Breaking through the bottleneck of capital, forming a policy environment, energy-saving and emission-reducing investment demand is large, and financing is difficult. It has become the biggest obstacle to energy conservation and emission reduction. It must be overcome by effective measures. The main measures are: establishing a normal investment channel for government energy conservation and emission reduction, at the bank. The industry implements a black credit and green credit strategy to promote energy conservation and emission reduction. The stock market should establish a green channel for the financing of energy-saving and emission-reducing enterprises, and establish a risk investment mechanism in the field of energy conservation and emission reduction.
The policy environment for energy conservation and emission reduction should be formed as soon as possible, mainly from the following aspects:
The first is to improve the tax support policy for energy conservation and emission reduction. At present, we should study and implement preferential policies such as income tax and land use tax for energy-saving product manufacturers as soon as possible, implement preferential tax reduction and exemption policies for major energy-saving equipment and products, and implement zero-tax policy for energy-efficient buildings. Further adjust the import and export tax policy for “two high and one capital†products, impose strict quotas on export of some resource-based and high-energy-consuming products and levy export taxes, and reduce import-related value-added tax on imports of high-grade recycled copper.
The second is to reform and improve the energy price formation mechanism and price policy. It is necessary to improve the electricity price policy that is conducive to energy conservation and emission reduction, establish a linkage mechanism between the terminal electricity price and the whole society price level as soon as possible, and resolutely implement the differential electricity price policy for high-energy-consuming industries, further improve the time-of-use electricity price at the peak of electricity sales, and guide the whole society. Electricity consumption, electricity conservation, and strict implementation of electricity price policies that encourage the development of renewable energy.
The third is to implement policies that encourage enterprises to increase investment in energy conservation and emission reduction. Allow enterprises to set special expenses for energy conservation and emission reduction, which are extracted according to a certain proportion of sales income, and are included in the cost, and are earmarked for special purposes. Encourage enterprises to increase investment in ecological environment management and allow their expenses to be included in costs.
Fourth, we must promptly formulate and improve energy conservation and emission reduction technology policies. Strengthen the functions of the National Standardization Committee and strengthen the standard setting work. At present, we must speed up the formulation and improvement of energy conservation and environmental protection standards and labels for sub-products. Focus on formulating market access and restriction standards for energy-saving and emission reduction in high-energy-consuming industries, and improve energy efficiency in high-energy-consuming industries as soon as possible. In industries with international competitiveness such as light industry and textiles, industry technical standards are formulated in accordance with international advanced levels to promote industrial upgrading and technological progress.
Establish an energy conservation and emission reduction organization guarantee system Strong organizational guarantee is the key to smoothly promote energy conservation and emission reduction. It should further strengthen organizational guarantee work for weak links. Study and implement the national vertical management of environmental protection supervision system. In view of the serious local protectionism of some local environmental protection departments, the difficult situation of environmental protection supervision and the situation of outstanding inaction, it is necessary to strengthen the national environmental protection supervision function, and study and establish a central government-to-local vertical management system as soon as possible to form policy supervision and enterprise self-discipline. Environmental monitoring mechanism for public participation. Improve the national energy conservation supervision system. Set up an energy-saving center as soon as possible, and require local governments to set up energy-saving monitoring centers to enrich energy-saving supervision.
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Increase energy conservation and emission reduction to achieve green development strategy
The international economy still has uncertainties. China's macroeconomic policy orientation will be clear next year. Since the second half of 2008, due to the impact of the international financial crisis, the Chinese economy has experienced a sharp decline in the fourth quarter of last year. The central government adjusted macroeconomic policies in a timely manner, and made a series of major decision-making arrangements in expanding domestic demand and promoting economic growth to cope with the international financial crisis. As the response measures were resolutely effective and gradually effective, the trend of economic growth slowed down in a relatively short period of time, and the overall economic performance showed a steady momentum.