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Manufacturing industry stalls global economic dynamism
The US, Europe and Asia July manufacturing indices (1305.395, -5.79, -0.44%) fell simultaneously, indicating weak demand and lost momentum in the global recovery. In a situation where consumption is difficult to start and unemployment is high, the “blackout†of the manufacturing industry will undoubtedly add uncertainty to the global economy. US manufacturing industry suffered the slowest growth rate in two years According to data released by the US authoritative industry research institute Supply Management Association (ISM) on the 1st, the US manufacturing index fell to 50.9 in July, lower than the previous month's 55.3, and far less than economists. Originally expected to fall to 54.5. This is the slowest growth rate in the US manufacturing industry in two years. The Institute of Supply Management believes that the slowdown in manufacturing growth reflects the weak growth of the US economy in the first half of the year. The rise in oil prices and other commodity prices has led consumers to cut spending and curb factory orders. Analysts originally believed that the recent decline in US manufacturing was affected by temporary factors, but it is difficult to find signs of warming, so some analysts have to re-estimate. “Given the new order sub-index is a leading indicator, the decline in the index means that the economic growth in the second half of the year may be much lower than some people expected.†Wells Fargo analysts wrote in the research report. Curry, chief economist at Credit Agricole North America, said: "The manufacturing industry has always been a bright spot. In the short term, the manufacturing industry is expected to gain a little support from automobile production. However, if it is to continue to grow, it must see demand, but demand. It has been quite weak.†Slow global manufacturing expansion The slowdown in US manufacturing is part of a global megatrend, with global manufacturing activity growing at the slowest rate since the 2009 recession. The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) released by JPMorgan Chase and Research and Supply Management on the 1st fell to 50.6, the lowest since July 2009. Morgan Stanton economist Luton said: "The global manufacturing industry is slipping into a sluggish situation. As the new order data is not optimistic, the signal of the recent recovery is not obvious." The global manufacturing PMI is integrated from the United States, Japan, Germany, Data from about 20 countries including France, Britain, China and Russia. At the same time, Markit data showed that the PMI in the Eurozone fell to 50.4 in July, down from 52 in the previous month. The performance was the worst in September 2009, indicating that the growth of the manufacturing industry is close to stagnation; the index above 50 represents the expansion of the economy, below 50 represents Shrinking. The main growth engine of the Eurozone Germany's manufacturing growth fell to a 21-month low, and new orders shrank, the first time in more than two years. The further decline in manufacturing growth is another sign of the weakness of the Eurozone economy, which may put the European Central Bank under a greater pressure to suspend interest rates; the bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in April and July to curb the climb. The inflation rate of the target cap. Manufacturing growth in Europe slowed in July, while manufacturing in the UK, Russia and Australia even shrank. The UK manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in July from 51.4 last month, the first time the country fell below 50 after falling into recession two years ago; the Russian manufacturing index fell to 59.8 from 50.6; Australia also fell from 52.9 to 43.4, two The lowest level in the year. Emerging markets have also suffered. India’s manufacturing growth slowed last month, and HSBC’s July PMI fell to 53.6 in July, down from 55.3 in the previous month and the lowest level since November 2009. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released a PMI of 50.7% in July, which fell for the fourth consecutive month and hit a 29-month low. “Bad sight†dragged down the global economy according to Bloomberg’s analysis, Europe’s debt crisis, the US’s political wrangling on raising the debt ceiling, China’s tightening fiscal policy, corporate layoffs and consumer confidence, and rising commodity prices such as oil. It is the main reason for the global economic slowdown and the decline in manufacturing growth. HSBC senior global economist Ward said that the data presented to manufacturers as "the worst sight", "the rising global commodity prices have put a lot of pressure on consumers and companies. In the economy There are few bright spots." Because high unemployment and high inflation are also spreading in the global economy, it can be expected that the real economy of various countries will face unprecedented stagflation pressure and the relevant economic policy choices will be more difficult. The British "Independent" said: "This global manufacturing decline will trigger the risk of a double dip in the economy."