Polysilicon prices rise hard to sustain future prices or will call back

According to the data, the price of polysilicon in the spot market of silicon raw materials in China has recently ranged from 700,000 yuan/ton to 740,000 yuan/ton. Compared with the price of 650,000 yuan / ton to 720,000 yuan / ton at the end of November, polysilicon prices have risen slightly.

Xiaoxin, a researcher in the new energy industry of China Investment Consulting, believes that there is a small increase in the price of polysilicon, mainly for two reasons. On the one hand, the tense situation on the Korean peninsula has led some PV companies to buy polysilicon. At present, South Korea's OCI's polysilicon production ranks in the top five in the world, and its customers are mainly from Taiwan and China. After the situation on the Korean Peninsula deteriorated, South Korea blocked the port of the sea, and OCI could not export polysilicon on time, so some of its customers turned to the Chinese polysilicon market to find alternatives. On the other hand, the production costs of domestic polysilicon manufacturers have risen. In the polysilicon production process, a large amount of electricity is consumed, and recently the national electricity sector has raised the price of electricity, which undoubtedly pushed up the production cost of polysilicon.

Xiao Han pointed out that the rising trend of domestic polysilicon prices is not sustainable and there will be a correction in the next few months. First, the demand for polysilicon by photovoltaic companies will be weakened. Due to the uncertainty of global PV market growth next year, some domestic PV companies have adopted a more cautious capacity expansion strategy to control their production. In addition, in some major PV markets, there are cases of slow sales of PV modules. The weakening of demand in these PV markets will directly reduce the demand for polysilicon in PV companies.

Second, the decline in the price of downstream products will be transmitted to the upstream raw materials, driving the decline in raw material prices. At present, the price of solar photovoltaic modules has shown a downward trend. Take the 190W monocrystalline module as an example. At the beginning of November, the price was between US$1.86/W and US$1.94/W. In early December, the price of this type of monocrystalline module has dropped to US$1.76/W to US$1.87/W. Since the decline in the price of solar PV modules will take some time to pass through the raw materials, it is expected that the price of polysilicon will rebound after a few months.

According to the “2010-2015 China Polysilicon Industry Investment Analysis and Prospect Forecast Report” issued by China Investment Consulting, over the years, because the core technology for producing polysilicon has been mastered by a few international polysilicon giants, they have shared the high amount of the industry with technological advantages. profit. However, the emerging emerging polysilicon producers are hitting the global polysilicon market, and high polysilicon prices will be difficult to sustain. As the price of polysilicon declines, the high profit margin of the polysilicon industry will return to a relatively normal level.

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