Power shortage, coal power integration or development trend

With the arrival of peak summer peaks, the "electricity shortage" that has swept across the country is spreading to a greater extent. Against the backdrop of the structural “electricity shortage”, the National Development and Reform Commission raised the on-grid tariff and terminal sales price of some provinces on April 10 and June 1 respectively. How to solve the power shortage problem? Coal-fired power integration may be a major measure to solve the root causes of power shortages.

According to the national grid forecast, with the peak of electricity consumption approaching, 26 provinces will have a power gap of about 30 million kilowatts. Among them, Beijing, Tianjin, and more than 10 provincial power grids will have a tight supply and demand situation. If the power coal supply continues its current trend, the contradiction between power supply and demand during the summer peak season will further intensify. It is expected that the power gap will increase to 30 million to 40 million kilowatts, and electricity shortages will be concentrated in North China, East China and Central China.

Shangpu Consulting Energy Industry Analysts believe that under the background of the central government's promotion of energy-saving and emission reduction, if the coal-electricity linkage is promoted, the impact of rising electricity prices on the consumption of downstream enterprises and residents will not be considered. The price of electricity will increase and the electricity supply will accelerate, but this will encourage disguised encouragement. Power generation companies to expand the scale of thermal power generation, it will mean that we will rely more on thermal power. Overall, coal and electricity integration will become a trend.

The rapid growth of energy demand in China, the uneven distribution of coal in the region, and the single power structure are important reasons for the shortage of electricity. For a long time, the growth of electricity demand has been faster than the growth of electricity generation. Especially when the growth of electricity demand is accelerating, it is easy to cause “electricity shortage”.

Champ Consulting analysts believe that the rapid growth of electricity demand in the past two years is not due to economic growth, but more due to unreasonable consumption of high-energy-consuming industries such as steel and cement. Relieving the pressure of power shortages and realizing the integration of coal and electricity should accomplish the following three points: First, thermal power companies, if not unrestrained by personnel, should at least grasp 30% of the coal supply. The integration of coal and electricity can turn the external contradiction between coal and electricity into internal digestion. Second, coal and electricity integration can relieve the pressure of rising coal to a certain extent. Third, crack the “electricity shortage”. We must also rationalize the relationship between coal and electricity prices and establish a scientific and reasonable electricity price formation mechanism. Realize the linkage between coal prices, on-grid tariffs and sales tariffs, give full play to the market transmission of price signals, and increase the utilization efficiency.